AGP Executive Report

Energy & Trade Shock: A US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is lifting Asian markets and easing near-term supply fears, but analysts warn recovery in shipping, energy infrastructure, and commodity flows could take months or longer, keeping global growth under pressure. Policy Response: Malaysia’s Economy Ministry says it will brief Parliament on the global energy and supply-chain crisis, citing continued growth and low inflation while ramping up decision-making. Inflation/Cost Pressures: Romania remains in stagflation territory with near-zero growth and persistent price pressure, while businesses warn power hikes can hit jobs and investment. Regional Business & Investment: India and Slovakia report record trade and expanding cooperation; Korea and Cambodia plan to deepen ties under their FTA; Bahrain highlights real estate momentum as a growth pillar. Finance & Markets: Tanzania’s central bank is urged to keep backing shilling stability; Westpac economists flag petrol could fall below $3 in New Zealand if the oil deal holds; Geojit reiterates a BUY on PVR Inox after its turnaround. Governance & Growth Risks: Sri Lanka’s Ranil Wickremesinghe warns of “total collapse,” while Zambia debates tougher debt-default rules for civil servants. Tech & Productivity: Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella argues firms must blend human expertise into AI and build decentralized AI value. Local Economy: Lagos praises a N5bn MSME loan push; South Africa’s illegal gambling crackdown call targets revenue losses.

Geopolitics & Energy Shock: A new analysis warns the Iran conflict is turning into a wider energy, logistics, fertilizer, food and financial drag that could weigh on global growth through 2027, even if fighting eases. Policy & Growth Uncertainty: Indonesia’s economy is hit by high energy prices plus investor jitters from tighter export controls and central-bank oversight moves, with the rupiah sliding again. Financial Stability Watch: Nepal’s central bank says weak governance, bad loans and report-tampering are undermining banks, as regulators flag hidden repayment problems and poor loan-use tracking. Public Finance Pressure: Bangladesh finds revenue collection is structurally lagging GDP growth (revenue buoyancy averaging 0.93), pointing to untapped tax potential. Local Economy Strain: Christchurch’s homelessness is rising despite reported economic growth, with more people visible in the CBD and suburbs. Jobs Signal Mixed: US data shows job gains but small-business hiring plans are at a multi-year low, raising recession timing concerns. Trade & Innovation: India and France move to double bilateral trade in five years and launch a joint innovation push. Digital Payments: Barbados launches an instant payments platform, aiming to modernize money flows for businesses and households.

Global Growth Drag from Iran War: A new analysis warns the US-Iran escalation is turning into a prolonged energy, shipping, fertilizer, food and financial shock, with global growth projected around 2.8–3.1% through 2027 even if fighting eases. Indonesia Investor Jitters: Indonesia’s rupiah slid below 18,100 per dollar and stocks are down sharply this year as fuel and food spending strains finances, while export controls and central-bank oversight fears spook investors—though rate hikes offered brief relief. Hong Kong Jobs Plan: Hong Kong’s first five-year blueprint aims to upgrade the economy and use AI to create quality jobs, with public consultation starting soon. New Zealand Budget Backlash: Critics say Budget 2026 missed the productivity problem, while political sparring over funding gaps and transport fare caps heats up. Cuba Economic Overhaul: President Díaz-Canel announced sweeping reforms to loosen state control across agriculture, trade, investment and government size amid deep crisis and sanctions. Pakistan Rate Pressure: Exporters and business groups welcomed Budget 2026-27 but urged the central bank to avoid further rate hikes ahead of the MPC. Bangladesh Digital Push: The government is betting on freelancing, outsourcing and a bigger digital economy to reach $1T by 2034, alongside a trade-and-growth diplomacy roadmap. Local Growth Bottleneck: Bangladesh’s Jamalpur Economic Zone faces delays as only one of 19 firms has gas connections, leaving nearly $200m in investment stalled. Tech/Finance Trend: Rain’s report says Latin America transacted about $1.5T via stablecoins from 2022–2025, cutting cross-border fees dramatically and boosting crypto-card adoption.

Energy Shock & Growth Outlook: A new analysis warns the US-Iran escalation is turning into a wider energy, shipping, fertilizer, food and financial drag, with global growth projected around 2.8–3.1% through 2027 even if hostilities ease. UK Economy: The UK contracted 0.1% in April as energy-price pressures from the Strait of Hormuz weighed on momentum. World Bank Forecasts: The World Bank kept Nigeria’s growth view at 4.1% for 2026 and 4.2% for 2027, but cut global growth to 2.5% amid Middle East energy shocks. Bangladesh Budget Push: Bangladesh is betting on a “creative economy” target of 1.5% of GDP, plus freelancing/outsourcing incentives, while also prioritizing energy security via domestic gas exploration and a Tk 200 crore blue-economy R&D plan. Local Business & Jobs: Orillia launched a Business and Employment Data Survey to support retention and investment, while South Africa’s Comrades Marathon is projected to inject close to R1bn into the KwaZulu-Natal economy. Industrial Policy & Trade: Morocco touts industrial gains and innovation leadership, but economists warn informality persists due to mismatched costs and benefits of formalization. Labor Rights: The ILO adopted a global treaty to protect gig economy workers, with India abstaining. Tech Investment: Vietnam aims to attract more developed-economy investment and tech giants, targeting a larger foreign-invested sector by 2030.

Global Growth Drag from Iran War: A World Bank report warns the US-Iran conflict could keep global growth near a pandemic-low environment, with energy, shipping, fertilizer and food shocks lingering into 2027. UK Economy Slips: The UK contracted 0.1% in April, with services hit by disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict. Energy-First Policy Push (US): Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argues “energy dominance” is the base layer for tax, trade and deregulation—aimed at boosting manufacturing and AI competitiveness. Cuba Reform Package: Díaz-Canel announced steps to liberalize parts of Cuba’s state economy, including more private activity and foreign-currency access, as sanctions pressure deepens. China Infrastructure Boost: China began construction on the Three Gorges new waterway, aiming to massively raise cargo capacity and improve river-sea shipping. Pakistan Budget Reaction: Small traders welcomed a 1% fixed tax but warned fuel and electricity costs remain a growth brake. Nigeria Gas Drive: Nigeria’s petroleum minister urged investors to expand gas access to power industrialization and jobs. Markets & Prices: Gold and silver jumped on safe-haven demand amid uncertainty. Gig Work Rules: The ILO adopted a global treaty to protect gig economy workers.

Digital Infrastructure & Telecom: Malaysia’s PM Anwar Ibrahim urged more firms to use 5G to lift productivity and innovation, while pushing greener, secure networks and local talent pipelines. Gig Work Rules: The ILO adopted the first global treaty to protect platform gig workers, aiming to extend basic labor rights to app-based drivers and delivery workers worldwide. Geopolitics & Growth: The World Bank expects Jordan’s growth to reach 3% by 2028, while warning MENAP faces slower expansion from conflicts, energy and shipping costs. Cuba Reforms Under Pressure: Cuba announced a broad 2026 reform package—decentralizing state firms, expanding private activity, easing foreign trade rules, and cutting subsidies—after new U.S. sanctions hit CUPET. Investment & Jobs at Home: Ohio approved $10m in tax credits to spur private investment in underserved communities. Trade & Connectivity: China broke ground on a major Yangtze River mega waterway project to ease shipping bottlenecks and boost inland freight capacity. Consumer Mood: U.S. consumer sentiment ticked up in June as gasoline prices eased, but worries about inflation remain.

Global Trade & G7 Prep: China’s vice premier urged economic cooperation and “inclusive growth” in a Macron-led call ahead of next week’s G7, as the bloc weighs tougher trade steps over low-priced Chinese exports. UK Growth Shock: The UK economy contracted 0.1% in April, the first fall in months, with services down while manufacturing rose—an Iran-war drag tied to higher fuel costs. Central Banks: The ECB raised rates by 25 bps, saying inflation pressures from the Middle East mean a hike may be enough for now. Middle East Fallout: South Korea’s finance ministry sees recovery supported by exports and sentiment, but warns Mideast uncertainty could hit inflation and jobs. Energy & Investment: Cambodia says its renewable buildout (hydro/solar) has kept electricity prices near pre–Hormuz levels; the Philippines certified 13 renewable projects under its Green Lane to speed permits. Policy & Trade Deals: India’s Piyush Goyal heads to Switzerland to push the TEPA trade pact; UAE/GCC growth is forecast to rebound in 2027-28 after 2026 slowdown. Local Economy Signals: Yorkshire & Humber business activity fell sharply in May as costs and uncertainty weighed on demand. Human Capital Pressure: Pakistan’s Economic Survey pegs 2025 floods losses at Rs822bn and warns growth targets were revised down; it also highlights health and nutrition gains.

Pakistan Economic Survey: Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb says Pakistan’s economy topped $452bn, with GDP growth at 3.7% in FY2025-26, services up 4.9% and manufacturing up 6.1%; reserves are above $17bn and the fiscal deficit sits at 0.7% of GDP, but Poverty & Jobs: poverty rose to 28.9% and unemployment hit 5.9 million, with rural poverty far higher than urban. Consumer Sentiment: Thailand’s consumer confidence slid to a 42-month low as Middle East tensions and high energy costs keep households cautious. Global Risk From Iran War: the World Bank warns the Iran conflict is the worst hit to the global economy since COVID, with fuel and growth pressures spreading. IMF Watch—Georgia: IMF forecasts Georgia growth at 6.5% in 2026 while inflation should ease, citing stronger buffers. Work & Trade Politics (Canada): a Senate report drew criticism from the Canadian Labour Congress, arguing it could weaken collective bargaining and workers’ right to strike. Creative Economy Funding: CAA and Integrated Media are launching a $250m holding company to back creator-economy businesses. Bangladesh Budget Push: officials tout a “creative” FY2026-27 budget aimed at production and investment, with tourism and the creative sector getting targeted support.

Middle East Spillovers: The World Food Programme warns the Iran war is starving millions via higher food and fuel costs and disrupted trade, with WFP forced to ration aid after major US/UN funding cuts. Pakistan Budget Push: Pakistan’s NEC approved a FY2026-27 development budget of 3.669tn rupees and set a 4% growth target, while the Economic Survey flags missed targets and rising inflation. EU Governance & Resilience: Vietnam and the EU reviewed economic governance support, while Ireland’s Tánaiste met EU Finance Ministers on resilience, competitiveness, and energy-driven inflation risks. Housing Affordability Shock: In metro Phoenix, even $140k incomes struggle to clear today’s home prices, underscoring how affordability—not just supply—has stalled the market. Ghana Digital Jobs: A Bolt/Ipsos study says Ghana’s gig and platform work now supports about $1bn a year, helping people earn flexibly across ride-hailing, delivery, and freelancing. South Africa Financial Risk: SARB flagged rising developed-economy sovereign debt as a global stability threat as refinancing and borrowing costs tighten. Nigeria Reform Debate: The IMF praised Nigeria’s reform progress but warned inflationary pressures from higher oil prices; meanwhile, opposition leaders attacked the government’s economic direction. Telecom Cost Cuts: MTN South Africa plans to cut R4bn–R6bn in costs by 2029 to offset weak home-market growth.

Geopolitics & Costs: The World Food Programme says the Iran war could push 45 million more people into severe food insecurity, with fuel and trade disruptions raising prices even beyond the Middle East. Sanctions & Security: The US Treasury’s OFAC sanctioned nine people and firms tied to Iran’s IRGC weapons procurement networks, targeting overseas supply and financial links. Central Banking: Bank of Canada held its 2.25% rate, with economists reading a “dovish” stance and “wiggle room” as it weighs weak growth against inflation risks from energy shocks. Ghana Growth: Ghana’s economy grew 6.4% in Q1 2026, led by services (ICT up 25.2%) and a rebound in industry, while inflation eased. South Africa Risks: SARB Governor Kganyago warned rising oil prices and tighter conditions could pressure South Africa’s financial system, even as resilience remains. AIIB Financing: Bangladesh signed a $250m AIIB loan for economic management and governance, as it seeks budget support amid Middle East-driven uncertainty. Policy Coordination: Pakistan’s Economic Survey 2025–26 lands Thursday with growth below target and inflation pressure returning, ahead of budget talks. Local Trade Boost: A new Pekanbaru–Melaka flight route aims to lift tourism and bilateral economic activity between Malaysia and Indonesia. Corporate Oversight: Bulgaria set up a consumer protection and anti-monopoly subcommittee, shaping how competition rules get enforced. UK Business Rules: The UK delayed major company accounts filing reforms to April 2028, giving firms more time to comply with transparency and anti-economic-crime changes.

Geopolitics & Food/Fuel Shock: The World Food Programme warns the Iran war is pushing tens of millions toward severe food insecurity as fuel and food prices rise and trade routes get disrupted, with added strain from US UN funding cuts. Energy & Growth Pressure: India is scrambling as higher oil costs weigh on the rupee, growth, and public finances; fuel demand in May fell 6.5% as consumers shift to alternatives. South Africa GDP Watch: SA’s economy grew 0.5% in Q1 for a sixth straight quarter, but economists warn Middle East-driven fuel and transport costs could mute momentum later in 2026. EU Sanctions: The EU proposes a new Russia sanctions package hitting banks, oil-related mechanisms, weapons makers, and crypto operators, aiming to squeeze Russia’s war financing. Climate/Policy: New Zealand’s ACT party is reigniting debate over emissions targets, arguing current policy is an economic “own-goal.” Circular Economy: South Africa’s Plastics Pact launched 2030 targets to boost recycling and circular growth. Digital/Jobs Narrative: LinkedIn says the hiring slump isn’t driven by AI, but by post-pandemic macro conditions. Local Economic Boosts: South Africa’s Comrades Marathon is expected to bring major visitor spending and temporary jobs. Fiji Fiscal Strain: Fiji faces a widening spending-revenue gap, ageing water infrastructure, and rising debt ahead of the 2026-27 budget.

Middle East Spillovers: The Iran war is pushing millions toward food insecurity as the World Food Programme warns of 45M more people facing severe hunger, with higher fuel and food costs and trade disruption compounding the damage. Energy Shock & Inflation: Gulf conflict fallout is driving inflation and forcing central banks toward a tighter stance, with Strait of Hormuz bottlenecks raising the risk of renewed oil spikes. US Politics Meets Gas Prices: A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump approval stuck near record lows, as voters expect higher gasoline costs and disapprove of his handling of living expenses. South Africa Growth Watch: South Africa’s GDP rose 0.5% in Q1, but economists warn Middle East tensions could hit confidence and consumer pressure. IMF Reform Signals: Nigeria’s government says the IMF endorsed Tinubu’s reforms, citing improved macro stability and FX operations, though poverty remains severe. Regional Integration Push: ASEAN leaders urged members to protect economic integration and resist fragmentation amid global instability. Tourism Boosts Local Economies: Wisconsin logged record tourism impact of $27B in 2025, while Christchurch’s Super Round delivered $13.1M+ in visitor spend. Anti-Corruption & Growth: Nigeria opened a new EFCC zonal office in Ekiti to strengthen the fight against economic and financial crimes.

FX & Inflation Watch: Nigeria’s naira slid at the start of the week on both official and parallel markets, while traders pointed to the CBN’s updated Foreign Exchange Manual as a potential support for liquidity and compliance. Middle East Shock to Asia: India is bracing for higher oil-driven inflation and fiscal strain as the Iran war keeps energy prices elevated and threatens supply routes. Growth Snapshots: South Korea’s economy grew 1.8% in Q1 on semiconductor-led exports and a jump in facilities investment; Morocco’s 2025 growth accelerated to 4.9% with uneven sector performance. Policy & Jobs: Malaysia’s economy minister said wage hikes must be paired with productivity gains, pushing employers to buy in. Investment & Development: Nigeria’s Invest Lagos 3.0 summit pitched Lagos as a private-sector engine for a $1tn economy; Oman signed new Duqm Special Economic Zone deals, including green hydrogen downstream phases. Digital Economy Funding: Kenya secured €102m EU support to expand connectivity and digital growth, plus more funding for the Blue Raman cable. UK Labor Warning: The CBI forecast UK unemployment could hit 5.5%, with Iran-related energy and inflation pressures weighing on hiring.

AI & Business Costs: The UK announced £200m to speed AI adoption by firms, expand training and “AI Growth Zones,” and reward responsible workplace transitions. Energy Security: As the Strait of Hormuz conflict drags on, Asia is still absorbing the worst of the energy shock—fuel, power and fertilizer pressures are hitting households and businesses. Hydrogen & Decarbonization: H2MOF says its solid-state hydrogen storage tech targets the main bottleneck for scaling hydrogen beyond electrification. Regional Trade & Infrastructure: Georgia and Azerbaijan-Türkiye back the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway as a trade and growth engine. Labor & Jobs: Canada’s GDP dip is being framed as “not a recession” by economists, while Indiana’s job losses keep stacking up year-over-year. External Sector Policy: India’s RBI opened forex swap tools for ECBs and FCNR(B) deposits to manage foreign-currency inflows. Middle East Economic Strain: Lebanon’s finance minister warns the economy could shrink 7–10% in 2026 if fighting continues. Tech, Finance & Markets: Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.5% as investors returned to AI-led tech. Crypto: A new take argues bitcoin is still huge, but no longer the whole story in crypto’s shift. Work & Welfare: Nigeria’s statistics overhaul push highlights how better data systems are needed for planning a $1tn economy. Blue Economy: Norway launched an ASEAN blue-economy development collaboration in Jakarta, linking ocean growth with ecosystem protection.

Sustainable Growth & Tourism: Egypt launched the Egyptian Red Sea Initiative to protect coral reefs, boost climate resilience, and drive sustainable tourism and green investment, with UNDP support and a focus on jobs and coastal livelihoods. Energy Efficiency Push: Türkiye targets $20B+ in energy-efficiency investments by 2030, aiming to cut energy use 16% and prevent 100M tons of emissions. Regional Trade & Integration: Gaziantep’s City Economies Summit will spotlight a new Türkiye–Syria trade and logistics push, including ideas for regulated border production zones. Cross-Border Investment: Fujairah Free Zone explored deeper economic cooperation with China, pitching its logistics and incentives to Chinese investors. Eurozone Confidence: Greece is back in the spotlight as the OECD and EU cite resilience; it was removed from macroeconomic imbalance surveillance, with markets watching for a possible credit upgrade. Tech & Jobs: Japan’s Q1 GDP grew 1.8% (annualized, revised down) as capital investment cooled, while exports rose. Circular Economy: Sephora NZ posted a fifth straight loss (net loss $5.3m in 2025) while Mecca NZ sales kept growing, highlighting uneven consumer demand. Labor Market Mood: UK recruiters reported more candidates and slower permanent hiring, with temporary work filling the gap amid uncertainty. Digital Infrastructure: Digital Realty opened Malaysia operations, planning to scale data center capacity to about 32MW. Housing Demand Shift: Cebu condos remain viable, but location is now the key driver as supply rises and buyers get pickier.

U.S. Jobs & Politics: Trump’s top economic adviser Kevin Hassett called the latest jobs report a rare bright spot, as May hiring surprised and unemployment stayed low, even while costs stay painful for households. Working-Class Message: New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani says Democrats are losing working people by not focusing on rent, healthcare, gas and food prices—an internal debate over how to win back the class. India Growth & FX Watch: PM Modi’s Economic Advisory Council meeting focused on “ease of living” and “ease of doing business,” with West Asia risks likely tied to crude, fertiliser, transport and rupee weakness after heavy foreign outflows. Subnational Funding: Nigeria experts stress that FAAC inflows are vital for states’ salaries and projects, so better use of allocations can lift infrastructure and growth. Global Shock From Iran War: OECD and others warn the Iran conflict is dragging global growth via energy, inflation and supply-chain damage. OPEC+ Supply: OPEC+ approved another July output rise of 188,000 bpd, keeping pressure on oil prices and Gulf economies. UAE Trade & Real Economy: UAE-Slovakia talks highlighted non-oil trade and sectors like energy, digitalisation and healthcare, while Dubai’s May property deals hit Dhs28.5bn.