AGP Executive Report

Monetary Policy: Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford won the 2026 economics Nobel for models that help central banks and governments manage inflation and economic shocks. Inflation Watch: India’s September inflation climbed to 5.54%, its fourth month above the RBI’s 4% target, strengthening expectations of further rate hikes as food and fuel costs rise. AI and Jobs: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that AI could reshape 40% of jobs over time. It may ease the strain of ageing populations, but could also widen Asia’s economic divide. Energy Risks: Aramco’s CEO said disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure are tightening oil and diesel supplies, with global repercussions and limited inventory buffers. Business Strategy: Malaysia plans to diversify beyond semiconductors and expand higher-value electronics production to reduce its exposure to a downturn in the chip cycle. Credit Risk: Sri Lanka’s central bank says vehicle and gold-backed loans now account for nearly a quarter of financial-sector credit, leaving lenders more exposed to falling collateral values.

Global Outlook: IMF–World Bank meetings open in Bangkok as officials confront war-driven energy inflation, high borrowing costs and record public debt. UK Finance Minister John Healey is urging major economies to set credible plans to control borrowing. Rates and Housing: Mortgage rates are forecast to average 7.3% late this year and stay above 7% through 2027, as inflation and government debt keep pressure on bond yields. Pakistan Revenue: The FBR collected Rs3,083.5 billion in the first quarter, beating its target by Rs30.5 billion and posting 7% growth from a year earlier. Africa’s Growth Model: Former AfDB chief Akinwumi Adesina urged African countries to process more raw materials at home and invest in manufacturing, technology and regional trade. Dangote’s report warns that a strong dollar, high rates and external debt are squeezing development budgets. Ghana Investment: Tony Elumelu met President John Mahama in Accra, highlighting business interest in Ghana, though the meeting alone does not confirm new investment.

Global Outlook: War-driven energy disruption, rising interest rates and higher fuel and fertilizer costs will dominate IMF–World Bank talks, as officials warn that risks to already-slowing growth are mounting. China: High-frequency indicators point to firmer momentum in the third quarter: offline spending rose 2.6% year over year, while investment in AI and robotics surged. US Debt: Economist Kenneth Rogoff warns that high debt-service costs leave the US vulnerable to shocks, including a wider conflict or cyberattack. UK Economy: Economists expect GDP to have contracted in August after strong growth in June and July, adding pressure ahead of the Budget. Dubai Investment: The emirate doubled its venture fund to AED1 billion to back startups and expand its innovation sector.

Ukraine’s Industrial Crisis: Russian strikes have halted ArcelorMittal’s Kryvyi Rih steel and mining complex, deepening pressure on a city already struggling to keep essential services running and underscoring Ukraine’s mounting budget crisis. U.S. Debt: The CBO director says growth alone is unlikely to stabilize federal finances: debt is about $40 trillion, and the agency projects publicly held debt reaching 120% of GDP by 2036 without changes to spending or revenue. Fuel Markets: Trump’s plan to allow Russian diesel into global markets faces bipartisan criticism in Congress, with lawmakers questioning whether it could fund Moscow’s war, comply with U.S. law or lower prices. Nigeria’s Credit Outlook: Fitch upgraded the country’s outlook to positive, citing stronger foreign-exchange reserves and policy reforms, while warning that inflation, weak revenues and oil dependence remain risks. Kuwait’s Investment Push: New reforms aim to diversify state financing and attract investors, including a law enabling government sukuk backed by state assets and operating rights.

Trade and Investment: Malaysia and Egypt will target stronger trade, investment and flight links, with bilateral trade up 74.7% this year—though from a low base. Industrial Growth: Jordan’s new Aqaba incentives will cover up to 75% of container-handling costs for qualifying manufacturing and assembly projects, aiming to attract investment and boost exports. Jobs and Confidence: U.S. employers added just 29,000 jobs in September as unemployment rose, while consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in more than a decade. Canada also shed 68,000 jobs, its second straight month of unexpected losses. Global Outlook: UNCTAD expects world growth to slow to 2.6% in 2026 as trade weakens; India is forecast to grow 7.3%, the fastest pace among major economies. Transport Investment: The EU aims to mobilize up to €12 billion for the Middle Corridor, seeking to expand trade links between Central Asia, the South Caucasus and Europe. China’s Consumer Market: AI gadgets drew shoppers during the National Day holiday, as smart devices move from novelty toward mass-market sales.

U.S. Consumers: Sentiment fell to a five-month low of 46.3 in early October, with current conditions at a record low as households face persistent inflation, high fuel costs and slower hiring. Canada Jobs: The economy shed 68,000 jobs in September, its second straight monthly loss, lifting unemployment to 6.5% and raising concerns about trade pressures and weakening demand. Global Outlook: UNCTAD expects world growth to slow to 2.6% in 2026, as Middle East tensions weigh on an already fragile recovery. UAE Economy: GDP grew just 0.4% in the first half of 2026, while contracting 2.1% year over year in the second quarter; non-oil activity also declined in that quarter. Caribbean Divide: The World Bank sees a two-speed recovery, with Guyana forecast to grow 23.7% this year while tourism-dependent economies face much slower growth.

Malaysia Budget: The 2027 budget is expected to ease living costs while strengthening public finances. A government report says targeted fuel subsidies had cost RM18 billion by August, with officials arguing that tighter targeting can protect vulnerable households and support economic activity. Global Outlook: UNCTAD sees world growth slowing to 2.6% this year from 2.9% in 2025, citing energy shocks and financial instability. Asia is forecast to generate 59% of global growth, though the agency cautions that the AI trade boom may not deliver broad gains. Markets & Debt: Economist Kenneth Rogoff says he has only recently begun worrying about a US debt crisis, pointing to rising interest costs and the risk of a major shock. Business: Airtel Money began trading in London after a £529 million IPO, valuing the African financial-services company at about £5.3 billion. Household Strain: US consumers remain gloomy despite solid growth, with high costs and anxiety over AI’s effects on jobs widening the gap between economic performance and how people feel.

Growth Outlook: Rwanda’s economy grew 9.7% in the first half of 2026, led by industry and services; the central bank forecasts 7.8% growth for the year, while warning that conflict could raise trade and input costs. Investment: Greece’s new Skouries gold and copper mine represents more than $2 billion in investment and could draw further capital, with copper seen as important to European industry and the energy transition. Canadian Projects: Bill C-39 passed its first vote, advancing plans to speed approvals for major projects. A special committee will review the bill, including proposed changes to federally regulated labor disputes that have drawn criticism. Nigeria’s Reform Debate: The government says reforms have put the economy on firmer ground and pledges to focus on jobs and living costs. Economist Akpan Ekpo argues projected growth of 4.1% is too weak to significantly reduce poverty or create enough jobs.

Global Outlook: The IMF says the AI investment boom could lift growth, but higher energy costs and record public debt are increasing risks for governments and markets. Germany: Berlin raised its 2026 growth forecast to 1.3%, citing AI-related demand and resilience to energy shocks, even as August exports fell 0.8% and trade momentum weakened. Trinidad and Tobago: Economists warn that slowing growth, unemployment, foreign-exchange shortages and declining energy production threaten the outlook ahead of the budget; they also question the World Bank’s forecast of a 2.5% rebound in 2027. Industry and Skills: Malaysia says a skilled workforce is essential to attract technology investment and move businesses into higher-value sectors.

Global Outlook: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that energy shocks, record public debt, inflation and AI investment risks could make 2027 difficult, urging governments to act. U.S. Economy: September hiring slowed to just 29,000 jobs, complicating the Fed’s inflation fight as diesel costs squeeze truckers and threaten higher prices for goods. AI and Markets: Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin cautioned that overlapping commitments and borrowing in the AI boom could spread financial stress; the IMF also warned AI may deepen inequality. Trade: India joined the U.S. and 13 other economies in pledging cooperation to address excess manufacturing capacity and market-distorting policies. Nigeria: The World Bank raised its 2026 growth forecast to about 4.3%, but the challenge remains turning stronger growth into jobs and better livelihoods. Wealth Gap: U.S. data show the top 0.1% now averages $204 million in household wealth, pulling further ahead of the rest of the top 1%.

Global Outlook: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that the AI investment boom, energy shocks and record public debt are raising risks, with AI gains concentrated in a handful of economies. India: The Reserve Bank raised its benchmark rate to 5.5% to contain inflation, while lifting its FY27 growth forecast to 7.1%; higher borrowing costs could weigh on households and businesses. Malaysia: Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim says the 2027 budget will aim to ease living costs and spread growth’s benefits more fairly, with details due Friday. Growth Forecasts: The World Bank lifted Nigeria’s 2026 growth outlook to 4.3% and raised its forecast for sub-Saharan Africa to the same rate. Asia Productivity: A new regional report finds annual labour-productivity growth among member economies slowed to 2.5% in 2019–24, from 2.9% in 2015–19.

U.S. Economy & Fed Watch: Harvard economist Karen Dynan told a global outlook event the U.S. should keep “solid” momentum next year even as growth cools, with AI buildout helping offset higher energy costs. Election Economics: Early voters in Ohio say inflation and prices are driving turnout ahead of the midterms. Energy Costs & Policy: Trump’s talk of a “massive” G7 diesel release drew pushback from an economist, while his consideration of suspending the federal gasoline tax faces practical questions from the diesel market. Black Sea Shipping Risk: Drone attacks in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone sank one vessel and damaged another, prompting emergency security meetings. AI & Jobs Debate: Economists are challenging Silicon Valley’s AI layoff warnings, pointing to payroll data showing more targeted impacts. Local Growth & Jobs: Lee University’s economic impact study puts its one-year contribution at $612M and 3,682 jobs in Tennessee. Green Economy: Qatar is pitching “waste-to-fuel” tech to turn food scraps and biomass into alternative energy and new revenue. Immigration & Housing: A Philadelphia-area report quantifies immigrants’ economic role and warns population and workforce could be at risk without legal immigration. Agriculture Pressure: Purdue/CME data shows farmer sentiment slipping as diesel tops $6 a gallon. Global Outlook: World Bank forecasts Nepal growth slowing after the Rasuwa flood, with reconstruction expected to support recovery.

Fuel & supply squeeze in Sri Lanka: The energy minister said private fuel firms (Lanka IOC, Sinopec, RM Parks) are restricting domestic releases because regulated prices don’t cover their losses, pushing more supply onto state CPC and reviving queues. Middle East slowdown: The World Bank cut its 2026 Middle East forecast, citing the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions; Gulf economies are projected to contract sharply. Sri Lanka recovery, but households lag: The World Bank says growth is back to 2018 levels, yet poverty, jobs and incomes remain below pre-crisis benchmarks. Bangladesh under pressure: The World Bank warns growth will stay subdued as banking risks, energy shortages, weak revenue collection and inflation weigh on investment. Germany demand wobble: Factory orders fell faster than expected, highlighting fragility in Europe’s recovery. UK borrowing stress: A former Bank of England economist urged Andy Burnham to cut public spending to calm bond markets. Nigeria business & risk: Manufacturers spent N1.35tn on alternative power in 2025; a separate report estimates kidnappers demanded N81.9bn and collected N11.4bn over three years. Regional trade & investment: GCC chambers met to boost intra-GCC trade and joint projects; Pakistan’s finance minister stressed stability, fiscal discipline and export growth to attract investment. Business operations: Booking.com asked a Dutch court to force office attendance two days a week.

Iraq Stimulus Push: Iraq approved about IQD 3.5 trillion (around $2.7bn) in stimulus covering housing finance, industrial lending, contractor payments, farmer dues, and an expanded Generations Fund—aimed at speeding implementation through the finance ministry, central bank, and state banks. Pakistan Industry & Exports: Pakistan’s towel sector got fresh provincial backing as officials highlighted export jobs and foreign exchange; meanwhile seafood exports jumped 74.75% in quantity and 74.40% in value in FY26-27 Q1 to $125.4m, reinforcing the blue-economy push. Business Groups Mobilize: Pakistan’s chambers set FPCCI 2027 election dates (Dec 17, nominations due Nov 30) and Lahore’s LCCI pledged closer coordination to resolve industrialists’ bottlenecks. Healthcare as Economy: Nigeria’s finance minister framed healthcare as “economic infrastructure,” commissioning diagnostic centres under NSIA’s expansion plan to boost productivity and crowd in private and development financing. Travel & Consumer Pressure: New Zealand retail spending fell in September as petrol prices, higher interest rates, and bad weather weighed on shoppers; Qantas and British Airways also rolled out A380 cabin upgrades, signaling airlines are competing on comfort amid tougher demand. Middle-Market Finance: Nassau Street Partners highlighted a growing gap between middle-market capital needs and advisory support, pushing more tailored corporate finance outreach.

US Monetary Policy Watch: White House economist Chris Phelan said the Fed may be done hiking for 2026 after a weak September jobs report, with hiring slowing but unemployment still near a “healthy” level. AI & Jobs Regulation: Malaysia’s communications minister warned that AI, the gig economy and e-commerce need workforce planning and guardrails so “creative destruction” doesn’t turn into job losses and unfair pay. Regional Growth Upgrades: AMRO lifted Malaysia’s growth forecast to 5.1% for 2026 on AI-related exports and investment, while flagging inflation around 2%. Central Asia Connectivity: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and the UAE signed an MoU to study a rail corridor linking Central Asia to Pakistan’s seaports, with Afghanistan in the route. EU Trade & Health: The EU temporarily suspended Namibia fresh meat imports after an FMD outbreak, while allowing some processed products. Digital Economy: Singapore reported its digital economy hit S$144.1bn in 2025 (19.3% of GDP) as AI adoption among SMEs rose. Energy Corridor Pitch: Türkiye’s “Development Road” project was touted as an energy corridor worth up to $80bn annually if scaled. Nigeria Economy Snapshot: Nigeria’s Q2 2026 GDP grew 4.43% y/y, but electricity supply contracted 10.63%, underscoring power constraints.

Digital Payments & Skills: Pakistan’s KPEZDMC and IMSciences signed an MoU to place trainees into on-the-job training inside economic zones, aiming to turn hi-tech and digital training into workplace-ready skills. Agriculture & Food Exports: Pakistan’s livestock lobby urged faster adoption of modern food-safety and export certification, saying only 4% of milk is processed and reforms could unlock $3–$5bn in annual export revenue. Payments Scale-Up: 1LINK expects payment transactions to top 12bn in 2026, with throughput nearing Rs90tn, as digital rails expand across banks, businesses and government. Farm Support Pressure: Kissan Board Pakistan demanded wheat and sugarcane support prices be announced immediately, warning of nationwide protests if farmers aren’t paid remuneratively. Farm Lending Bottlenecks: Pakistan’s central bank said weak insurance, lack of accredited warehouses and limited finance access are key constraints on lending to farmers. Macro Outlook: Namibia cut its 2026 growth forecast sharply, citing underperformance. Politics & Economy: Brazil’s election vote count opened with Flavio Bolsonaro leading Lula, as voters weigh corruption and economic anxiety. Fed Watch: US consumer inflation came in softer than expected, giving the Fed more room before further rate moves. Tech Talent Pay: Singapore’s salary guide flags strong demand for AI, data and cybersecurity skills even as hiring and wage growth stay cautious. Tourism & Jobs: Ghana’s recovery question is whether it reaches the “kitchen table,” despite improving inflation and growth. Local Business Boost: Dubai CommerCity is set to expand with Dh1.8bn to accelerate digital commerce growth.