AGP Executive Report

Policy & Productivity: Malta’s shadow economy minister Darren Carabott urged a shift from workforce-led growth to productivity, skills and innovation, arguing quality jobs and real wage gains matter more than headcount expansion. Poverty & Social Spending: Nigeria’s former NAPEP coordinator Prof. Magnus Kpakol warned the $1bn social protection plan won’t end poverty if it leans mainly on cash transfers, stressing sustainable income creation and clearer financing. Markets & FX: Nigeria’s naira strengthened at NAFEM and reserves topped $53bn, while the NGX showed modest gains alongside mixed sentiment on the NASD OTC. Energy Costs & Competitiveness: EU Commission President von der Leyen said the loss of cheap energy imports has hit competitiveness, with EU prices still far above the US and China. Halal Economy Push: Nigeria targets $12bn investment to capture value in the $7tn global halal market, focusing on processing, certification and exports. Regional Growth Signals: Armenia reported faster activity growth to 7.7% (Jan–Jul) and Finland showed slower but positive Q2 growth. Tech & Skills: Sabah (Malaysia) plans to build local talent beyond oil and gas via TVET as it diversifies into manufacturing, tourism and digital. Gig Economy Clash: Uber, Eternal and Porter exited Karnataka’s gig workers welfare board, highlighting the growing fight over compliance costs and statutory obligations. Geopolitics & Sanctions: Iran-related economic pressure remains in focus as the US escalates “economic war” messaging, raising risks for trade and energy markets.

State Budget Watch (South Dakota): Advisers say revenue is coming in better than feared, with July sales tax up 12.8% and farm income rebounding, but they flag uncertainty from federal policy, drought and labor shortages. Local Growth (Morgan Hill): Advanced manufacturing and clean-tech investment are lifting industrial capacity, pushing vacancy to 6.5% from 17% and adding jobs and major capital spending. Healthcare Economics: AHA highlights how health disparities drive major costs for hospitals—linked to hundreds of billions in annual spending and rising pressure from avoidable care and uncompensated services. Cost-Cutting Debate (Restaurants): Pizza Guys founder argues efficiency should protect quality, warning that cutting corners can damage customer experience. Trade War Risk (Georgia/Canada): A new analysis warns tariffs and uncertainty could raise costs and disrupt supply chains; Georgia exports $6.8B to Canada yearly. U.S.-Iran Sanctions Escalation: Trump says no Iran talks as Washington ramps “Operation Economic Outcast,” while Iran warns of reciprocal regional and global fallout. Canada-India Finance Push: Canada and India set a new economic and financial dialogue, aiming to streamline cross-border payments and deepen investment ties. Nigeria Reform Signal: A youth group points to Nigeria’s planned FTSE Frontier Market return as validation of FX and repatriation improvements. Ukraine War Drag: Ukraine’s economy forecast is cut to 0.5% as Russian strikes and port blockades hit exports and logistics. Business Sentiment (Canada Banks): RBC, TD and CIBC project cautious optimism even as smaller firms brace for tariff impacts. Regional Economic Impact (Minnesota): UWRF’s study estimates about $295M in annual output for local counties, tied to student and campus spending.

US-Iran Economic War: Washington escalated sanctions with “Operation Economic Outcast,” framing it as an “Economic D-Day” aimed at choking Iran’s oil, trade, and access to the global financial system; Iran’s officials call it “economic terrorism” and vow resistance. Ghana Economic Recovery: Ghana’s VP Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang says the Mahama government is gradually exiting inherited inflation and currency stress, while pushing healthcare and basic education to turn macro gains into household improvements. Nigeria Gas Push: President Tinubu urged NLNG to end gas flaring and convert environmental liability into domestic economic benefit as Train 7 nears completion. Global Outlook: IMF chief Georgieva says the world economy is more resilient than feared after the Iran-war energy shock, but warns inflation and fiscal strain remain risks. Markets & Rates: The dollar hovered near an eight-day high after US inflation data; US GDP grew 1.5% in Q2 with consumer spending holding up. Digital Economy: Indonesia is betting on AI and data centers to support growth, while the Philippines highlights digital tools expanding inclusive MSME access. Regional Growth Signals: Stats NZ reports New Zealand’s recovery led by southern regions, with unemployment rising to a June-quarter 11-year high.

US macro: The U.S. economy grew at a sluggish 1.5% pace in Q2, but consumer spending stayed strong (up 3.4% annualized) while imports and AI-related chip shipments dragged headline growth. Inflation politics: New PCE inflation data (core up 0.2% in July) is making it harder for Republicans to sell “economic strength” to voters. Iran sanctions: Iran’s foreign minister urged the UN to reject America’s “economic terrorism” campaign, while Tehran says it will resist wider U.S. sanctions and keep trading where possible. Global spillovers: IMF chief Georgieva said the world has weathered the Iran-linked energy shock better than feared, but fiscal stress and tight policy risks remain. Trade war ripple: New York is bracing for fallout from escalating U.S.-Canada trade tensions, with hotel demand flagged. Local growth & jobs: California awarded $48.5M to drive regional innovation and job creation; Oregon’s growth is catching up as revenues rise; and Port Houston highlighted nearly $1T in Ship Channel economic impact. Immigration & labor: A U.S. visa crackdown—pausing immigrant appointments and targeting tourism/business visas—could tighten workforce supply. Business & community: SBA Economic Injury Loans are available for Washington Parish firms hit by Tropical Storm Arthur; and FIFA World Cup 2026 generated $3.5B in NY/NJ economic impact.

Philippines Outlook: Capital Economics warns the Philippines faces a “slow and bumpy” recovery, forecasting 2026 GDP growth around 3% after corruption fallout and the Iran-linked hit to activity. Credit Signals: Moody’s affirmed the Philippines’ investment-grade Baa2 rating with a stable outlook, citing resilience despite headwinds. US Labor Drag: New Jersey lost about 26,000 jobs in July, mirroring a national slowdown tied to tariffs, Iran-war energy shocks, weak hiring, and AI-driven shifts. Global Macro: IMF chief Georgieva says the world has “weathered” the Strait of Hormuz energy shock better than feared, helped by AI investment demand—though risks remain. Iran Economic War: The US launched “Operation Economic Outcast,” expanding pressure beyond oil and finance to shipping, aviation, tech, gold and digital assets; Iran vows a two-year plan to absorb sanctions. Sanctions Spillover: China warns it will protect its interests if US measures target Iran’s trade partners, raising the odds of wider economic conflict. Circular Economy Tech: Optical sorter market growth is forecast to reach $5.4B by 2030 as AI and circular-economy rules boost automation in recycling and mining. Blue Economy Deals: India and Seychelles want to accelerate fisheries and aquaculture cooperation, including data systems and AI for harvest management.

Iran Sanctions Escalation: The U.S. launched “Operation Economic Outcast,” aiming to cut Iran’s revenue and pressure partners, while Tehran vows retaliation and China warns of consequences for firms tied to Iran. Middle East Spillover: The IMF says the global economy has so far “weathered” the Strait of Hormuz energy shock, but fiscal pressures are rising and growth is still vulnerable. Trade Tensions—Canada: Trump’s tariff fight with Canada is intensifying ahead of U.S. Senate races, with economists and lawmakers warning of higher prices and disrupted supply chains. AI Divide: IMF chief Georgieva says the risk of falling behind on AI is “most profound” in developing economies, even as AI investment boosts demand in advanced supply-chain players. Consumer Mood: U.S. consumer confidence dipped as uncertainty lingers. Germany Watch: Germany’s Ifo index rose to a one-year high, signaling resilience despite ongoing risks. Health Costs—New Mexico: A state fund meant to keep healthcare premiums affordable is projected to run short by 2028, raising pressure for policy changes. Credit—Philippines: Moody’s affirmed the Philippines’ investment-grade rating (Baa2) with a stable outlook, citing resilience amid headwinds.

US-Iran Sanctions Escalation: Scott Bessent launched “Operation Economic Outcast,” aiming to sever Iran’s financial “lifelines” via expanded secondary sanctions across digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping, while Iran’s rial slid to a record low and Tehran vowed retaliation. Geopolitical Spillovers to Markets: Oil and gold both moved on the Iran shock—gold hit a three-month high as investors sought safety, while shipping risk flared after a tanker was struck near the Strait of Hormuz. Trade Pressure Beyond Iran: The US also ratcheted pressure on Canada with new tariffs after talks collapsed, raising the risk of job losses and higher prices for US consumers. Digital Inclusion Gap: India’s gig economy is booming, but women remain sidelined by digital skills, mobility and safety barriers—even as bank-account ownership nears parity. SME & Growth Strategy: Malaysia is pushing a low-altitude economy pilot using drones and air logistics, while Nepal is prioritizing IT exports and data centers to stay competitive. Regional Development & Infrastructure: Germany’s Q2 growth was revised up to 0.3% on stronger exports, and Lagos advanced power transmission upgrades to support business growth. Local Economy Watch: Nigeria’s stock market dipped as profit-taking returned, while South Africa’s SA20 reported a USD 406m GDP boost.

Iran Sanctions Escalation: US Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent unveiled “Operation Economic Outcast,” aiming at “economic asphyxiation” by expanding secondary sanctions and targeting Iran-linked digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping, plus nearly 60 entities tied to oil smuggling, weapons procurement and cyber activity; Washington warned countries and firms that keep dealing with Tehran could be cut off from the dollar system. Gulf Energy Risk: The campaign lands as Iran threatens to halt Gulf oil exports and as Hormuz shipping remains disrupted, keeping pressure on oil prices and global trade routes. US-Canada Trade Fight: Ontario Premier Doug Ford hit back at Trump’s tariff threats, calling him a “bully” and warning Canada is ready for an “economic war,” after trade talks collapsed. AI Cost Pressure: A new analysis argues AI’s compute and energy demands are outgrowing current economic models, forcing new infrastructure and spending approaches. Local Growth & Jobs: Northern Michigan’s drone push and Wisconsin technical-college outcomes highlight how policy and training can translate into faster regional economic development.

US-Iran Sanctions Escalation: Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent says the US is entering an “economic D-Day,” aiming to sever Iran’s “economic lifelines” and warn countries that keep doing business with Tehran could face isolation. Oil & Markets: Oil slid as traders priced in possible new sanctions; the Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk as Iran warns it could halt Gulf exports. Currency Pressure: Iran’s rial hit a record low near 2.02m per dollar as sanctions fears and inflation squeeze households. Energy Shock Exposure: A Cambodia report flags how imported fuel and fertilizer make the economy vulnerable to global energy disruptions, urging reserves and targeted household support. UK Startup Tax Push: Phones 4u founder John Caudwell and Lord Rose back “Stop the Creep,” calling for reversing employer NI hikes and restoring reliefs for founders. AI Investment Bet: Alibaba is raising about $10.2bn to pour into AI, even as investors question whether spending will pay off. Local Economy: Tamil Nadu drops the Parandur airport plan, citing farmer and land impacts, while warning of economic fallout.

US Debt & Markets: With national debt topping $40T, Treasury bond and currency moves are being framed as “soft-form financial repression” to keep long-end yields from spooking the economy. Fed Watch: New Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s “no magic wand” messaging is rattling markets as households feel the squeeze. Housing Signal: Housing starts slid and new-home sales are in focus as rate-sensitive demand wobbles. Iran Economic War: Iran’s security leadership warns US allies that supporting sanctions is an “act of war,” while Iranian officials push back with “boomerang” claims. Canada Trade Fight: After US-Canada talks collapsed, 50% tariffs raise the risk of a broader trade war and higher prices. Nigeria Fuel Subsidy Politics: Atiku and others argue subsidy “removal” was fraud and point to investor incentives, while inflation data shows headline easing but food pressures rising. Energy & Climate: Europe’s heatwaves are drying rivers like the Rhine, threatening logistics and costs. Critical Minerals Race: Gulf states are accelerating investment in lithium, copper and rare earths to secure supply and diversify. Business Impact: Dangote expands free fuel delivery to more states, aiming to cut downstream distribution costs.

US-Iran Economic Standoff: Iran’s top security official Mohsen Rezaei warned neighboring states that joining Washington’s “economic war” could make them enemies, threatening to block oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes. Gulf Trade Shock: The UAE suspended all financial and economic transactions over missile threats tied to the Iran conflict, a move that could hit regional commerce links. US-Canada Tariff War: Talks collapsed and the US is set to impose a 50% tariff on $20B of Canadian goods, with Canada planning dollar-for-dollar retaliation. India Growth & Tech: India’s space economy hit about $9B, with projections of $40–45B in the next decade as private startups and investment expand. SME Focus (Thailand): Thailand’s commerce ministry outlined steps to strengthen SMEs, including better management, data/AI value creation, and wider market channels. Malaysia Education Spillover: Malaysia says 167,000 international students add around RM20B annually to the economy.

Pakistan Economy Watch: Planning minister Ahsan Iqbal says Pakistan has entered a “greater stability” phase, pointing to easing CPI inflation to 9.2% in July and promising exports-led jobs via URAAN Pakistan. Policy Clash: Former finance minister Asad Umar counters that growth has been weak and inflation/poverty worse, arguing fuel levies rose even as oil prices fell. Ghana 24-Hour Economy: Ghana’s 24-hour push is now law, but the real test is execution—reliable power, transport, security, logistics, finance, and shift-ready workers. Middle East Economic Pressure: Iran’s top security officials warn neighbors that joining the US “economic war” makes them enemies, threatening to block oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz. Lebanon Downturn: The World Bank projects Lebanon’s economy will contract 6.4% in 2026, with tourism collapse, weaker consumption, and higher inflation. North America Trade Shock: Canada’s talks with the US collapsed; Trump tariffs trigger a Canada “dollar-for-dollar” response, escalating risks for steel, dairy, and electronics. Global Rates: Fed minutes show officials leaning toward higher rates if inflation persists, while unemployment claims fell and mortgage rates ease but stay elevated. Africa Credit Signal: Fitch upgrades Tanzania’s outlook to positive, citing stronger reserves, moderated deficits, and reforms that improve shock resilience.

Iran–US Economic War: Iran condemned new U.S. sanctions as unlawful “economic warfare,” while Washington escalates an “economic D-Day” push aimed at choking Tehran’s lifelines; Trump says Iran isn’t ready for the “right deal,” as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains sharply reduced. Middle East Macroeconomics: The World Bank projects Lebanon’s economy will shrink 6.4% in 2026 as conflict derails tourism, consumption, supply chains, and lifts inflation toward 17.5%. Trade Policy Shock: The U.S. slapped 50% tariffs on $20bn of Canadian goods after talks collapsed, raising pressure on key Canadian sectors. Blue Economy & Energy Transition: Sabah industry groups want Budget 2027 support for aquaculture and marine tourism, including low-interest financing and fuel subsidies; in Maine and Canada, marine electrification is moving from pilots toward real commercial operations. Space Industry Restructuring: India’s ISRO is reportedly set to stop manufacturing launch vehicles and routine satellites, shifting mature tech to private firms/PSUs while focusing on R&D and advanced missions. AI and Jobs: Goldman Sachs says AI adoption is already hollowing out entry-level roles, with U.S. call-center employment down 39% below trend. Local Economic Governance: Hawkesbury mayoral candidate Greffe pitches tighter spending and clearer economic development priorities, while CJI Surya Kant argues for “Nyaya-nomics” to lower transaction costs via consistent adjudication.

Middle East Shock: The World Bank says Lebanon’s economy will shrink 6.4% in 2026 as renewed Israel-Hezbollah fighting crushes tourism, consumption, supply chains, and displaces about 1.2 million people; inflation is projected to jump to 17.5%, with reforms in banking restructuring and public finances flagged as key to unlocking recovery funding. Iran Sanctions Escalation: Iran’s foreign minister calls the US “economic D-Day” campaign doomed to fail, as Washington pushes a new phase of economic pressure centered on sanctions and isolation; China rejects the demand to cut ties with Iran, arguing pressure won’t solve the conflict. US Debt & Markets: A top economist warns Treasury’s long-term bond buyback plan could mimic Japan-style yield control and fuel dollar debasement fears, as the national debt tops $40 trillion. Latin America Politics: Bolivia’s president fires the economy minister after a congressional censure over missed questioning, appointing an interim replacement amid a cost-of-living crisis. Local Economy & Jobs: Nashville airport moves the Economy Lot B entrance and adds a new automated pay plaza; Glasgow hires Scotland’s first Night-Time Economy Manager to support the after-dark sector.

Iran Sanctions Escalation: The US is pushing a new “economic D-Day” to isolate Iran, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calling it the “greatest coordinated economic isolation” and warning allies and China to cut ties or face penalties; Iran’s foreign ministry and officials denounce the move as “economic terrorism,” while Tehran’s parliament speaker says Iran must plan to overcome “unjust sanctions.” Market & Energy Spillover: Oil prices jumped as the campaign raised fears of disruption around Hormuz and Iran’s oil exports. AI Valuations Watch: ECB economists warn that AI-fueled stock-market booms may still end in a correction, even if AI delivers real productivity gains. South Korea Economy Mood Shift: South Korea’s upbeat outlook is colliding with a stock rout, alongside calls for integrity standards to match economic clout. Circular Economy Deals: Finland is pitching circular-economy cooperation with India at ICEF 2026, pointing to clean energy, recycling, and resource-efficient value chains. Nigeria Growth Outlook: PwC forecasts Nigeria’s economy to grow 4.2% in 2026, but warns recovery remains concentrated in a few sectors. Local Economic Pulse: A Toronto poll finds residents worried about affordability and competitiveness ahead of the municipal election.

Iran Sanctions Escalation: US Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent says Washington will unveil plans to “economically isolate” Iran and “collapse” Tehran, urging allies and even China to join a coordinated pressure campaign, while Trump brands it “Economic D-Day” and warns any country offering Iran a “lifeline” faces “tremendous” penalties. Global Spillovers: Iran’s foreign minister calls the move a diversion from US debt problems and warns it could destabilize the global economy, as the US targets financial, energy and commercial channels tied to Tehran. Household Cost Squeeze (Caribbean): Sint Maarten’s budget notes GDP growth isn’t translating into living standards, with inflation jumping to 5.45% y/y in Q2 and sharp rises in gasoline (+38.37%) and GEBE fuel costs (+40.4%). Nigeria Fuel Subsidy Fight: Tinubu attacks Atiku’s pledge to restore fuel subsidies as “serious ignorance,” arguing subsidy removal improved states’ ability to pay salaries and pensions. Local Economic Planning (US): DeSoto, Texas council accepts its city manager’s resignation and moves toward a “Comprehensive Commercial Economic Master Plan” to structure future growth into eight districts. Food Security Tech (APEC): APEC highlights agricultural biotech and genome editing as a tool to strengthen crops and livestock amid extreme weather and trade disruptions. Anti-Corruption/Bribery Watch: OECD flags Turkey’s weak foreign bribery enforcement, contrasting with a US case alleging bribes tied to a Turkish energy firm. Labor Enforcement (NYC): Manhattan DA and the city worker protection agency team up to crack down on wage theft and related violations.