AGP Executive Report

US Jobs Shock: The U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, far below expectations, while unemployment slipped to 4.1%—a sign hiring is cooling even as wages stay nearly flat. Climate & Energy Strain: Europe’s heat and low river levels are forcing power and transport stress, with governments warning of wider economic fallout. BRICS Trade Push: BRICS ministers in Jaipur agreed “Economic Partnership 2030,” aiming to help MSMEs access credit and export markets using cash-flow based lending. Digital Economy & Payments: The World Bank says AI hype shouldn’t distract developing countries; practical uses like payments upgrades (India’s UPI, Brazil’s Pix) can still boost growth. Local Business Fallout: Honolulu’s Office of Economic Revitalization is shutting down next week after budget fights, suspending grants and small-business outreach. Regional Deals: Pakistan is pursuing a free trade area with the Eurasian Economic Union while deepening trade ties with Russia. Middle East Energy Links: Türkiye says it’s ready to support Lebanon’s energy sector and deepen economic cooperation. Women & Growth: Nigeria’s capital market agenda and Abuja expo messaging both stress women’s access to finance and markets.

Labor Market Watch: The U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, with leisure and hospitality down and local government education and retail also weakening; the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% largely because fewer people were looking for work, while wages rose only modestly. Policy & Politics: The Senate confirmed BLS economist Brett Matsumoto as commissioner, easing some trust concerns after Trump fired the prior head; meanwhile, reporting says Trump and Fed chair Kevin Warsh talk about the economy frequently, keeping pressure on rate expectations in focus. Global Contrast: Canada added about 75,000 jobs in July as it adjusts to Trump tariffs, pushing unemployment to a two-year low, while Europe’s markets leaned on earnings and data despite heatwave risks. Asia-Pacific Growth: The Philippines’ economy slowed to 2.3% in Q2 as Middle East war fallout hit inflation, fuel, jobs, and construction, with officials calling it temporary. Local Business Pressure: In Raleigh, small firms are adapting as consumers cut back on dining out, while some venues close—an echo of the broader demand squeeze.

Philippines Growth Watch: The economy grew just 2.3% in Q2 2026, the slowest pace in years, as Middle East-linked inflation, fuel costs, jobs and remittances weighed on households; Malacañang says the slowdown is “temporary” and expects a pickup in H2 as spending and infrastructure budgets accelerate. Europe Heat Shock: A new heatwave is pressuring transport, energy output and productivity across Western Europe, shifting consumer behavior and raising the risk of uneven growth. Macro Baseline: Romania’s finance ministry says the baseline growth path is only 0.1% this year, hinging on developments in Q3–Q4 and disinflation starting Aug–Sep. AI + Payments: Saudi Arabia is pushing a new AI expansion phase via data centers and digital infrastructure, while OSL launched AgentPay to let AI agents make autonomous, intent-based stablecoin payments. Naira Moves: Nigeria’s naira slipped to about N1,364.88 per $1 at the official market as dollar flows and CBN activity remain key. Regional Growth Signals: Malaysia’s Q2 growth picked up to 5.8%, and Cote d’Ivoire’s president said the economy remains “dynamic” ahead of Independence Day. Household Strain in the US: Fed data shows young adults increasingly rely on parents or outside help, underscoring a gap between confidence in the national economy and personal finances.

Higher Ed & Workforce: Oregon has 825,000 adults with some college but no degree, and research argues reconnecting even a slice could ease university budget strain and lift the state economy. Airline Pricing & Consumer Costs: American Airlines will cap complimentary upgrades from Main Cabin to Business Class on select long-haul routes, steering eligible flyers toward Premium Economy instead. AI & Productivity in Developing Economies: The World Bank says AI could boost productivity for 16.2% of workers in developing countries, but only if governments close gaps in power, internet, and skills. Housing & Mobility: NYC’s Economic Mobility Summit focused on housing policy and pathways to affordable homeownership for adult learners. Monetary Tightening: The Maldives Monetary Authority raised reserve requirements and expanded open-market operations to drain surplus liquidity. Trade & Supply Chain Risk: Germany’s Rhine low-water crisis is threatening river cargo volumes and adding pressure to shift freight onto land routes. Ghana Gold Strategy: Ghana’s gold-backed reserve push lifted reserves to $11.9B but also produced major central bank losses tied to fees and trading margins. Politics & the Economy: Multiple reports highlight voter frustration over affordability ahead of U.S. midterms, even as leaders tout record job and market headlines. Creator Economy Under Pressure: Medium CEO Tony Stubblebine argues AI-era platforms may punish low-effort “creator” content and raises the bar for research-driven writing.

Digital Economy & Inclusion: Pakistan’s broadband and financial inclusion gains are real, but a “dignified” digital economy needs more than accounts opened—people must be able to use services safely and benefit in practice. Public Digital Services: Moldova pushes a 100% digital state by 2030, aiming to make its EVO app the main hub for services, payments and notifications. Skills for the Future: Cambodia is accelerating education reform and digital skills training to match labor-market and tech shifts. Monetary Policy Watch: India’s RBI is expected to hold rates until December or later as core inflation stays subdued, while economists debate the timing of any tightening. FX & Inflation Reality Check: Nigeria’s naira edged down in the official market, even as the CBN points to narrower FX spreads and higher reserves. Audit & Governance: Nepal’s auditor general warns that outdated economic laws and inconsistent interpretations are undermining auditing quality; industry and professional bodies back stronger, tech-ready auditing. Energy & Trade Pressure: Germany’s Rhine low-water crisis threatens logistics and growth, adding pressure to an already strained economy. Creative Economy: BRICS Waves Bazaar in Mumbai calls for co-production, better distribution and ethical AI to boost Global South storytelling. Sanctions Update: The US removed Fly Baghdad and two aircraft from its sanctions list, while keeping the owner sanctioned.

Airport Infrastructure & Jobs: UK judges cleared Gatwick’s second runway, setting up about 14,000 jobs and a roughly £1bn boost. Business Sentiment: Massachusetts business confidence rose for a fourth straight month, hitting 52.7 in July as inflation eased but stayed above target. Macro & Growth Watch: Georgia reported 7.9% H1 growth and record FX reserves; Indonesia’s Q2 growth slowed to 5.3% but beat forecasts on household and government spending. Policy & Competition: New Zealand economists urged stronger Commerce Commission powers to tackle low wages and cost-of-living pressures via more competition. Energy Costs Hit Margins: A US report warns higher electricity prices are squeezing cannabis economics as wholesale prices fall. Trade & Investment Deals: Iraq’s PM heads to Washington to deepen economic ties; Pakistan and Iran agreed to push border trade and logistics. AI for Development: The World Bank says AI could lift productivity in developing economies, but only if countries close gaps in power, connectivity, skills, and institutions. Local Economy Shock: South Africa’s Premier Group started steps to close its Tulbagh fruit-processing plant, raising concerns for workers and farmers. Regional Development Push: Nigeria’s Delta summit drew Brazil/Malaysia/US interest in agriculture, energy, and industry.

AI & Development: The World Bank says AI can help developing economies reach in a decade what could take a century, but only if governments quickly fix power, internet, skills and institutions—plus it warns against chasing big models. Central Banking & Energy Risk: RBI flagged West Asia conflict as a major drag via trade-route disruption, oil-price volatility and supply-chain uncertainty. Monetary Policy Watch: Economists expect India’s RBI MPC to hold rates, citing easing inflation risks but persistent oil and rupee uncertainty. Indonesia Growth: Indonesia’s Q2 GDP growth slowed to 5.3% as household spending eased, though government spending surged and analysts still see momentum. UAE Economy: UAE non-oil private activity hit a four-month high in July, with employment improving as Iran-war fallout fades. Canada Business Sentiment: A KPMG survey finds Canadian firms optimistic about Ottawa’s agenda, but execution matters most with US tariff threats looming. UK Jobs & Cars: UK hiring cools as job postings fall 11% since the start of the year, while UK new car sales rose nearly 12% in July, led by EVs. Local Governance as Economics: South Africa’s business lobby warns municipal dysfunction is now a national economic risk ahead of elections.

IMF Syria Plan: The IMF agreed a wide-ranging technical assistance programme for Syria’s post-war rebuild, projecting double-digit 2026 growth while warning poverty remains widespread and recovery is uneven. Fuel Subsidy Talks (Philippines): Marcos’ economic team is studying a P20-per-liter fuel subsidy for public utility drivers, building on a prior P10 plan that already covers tens of thousands of vehicles. Farm Pressure (US): American Farm Bureau president Zippy Duvall called the farm economy “terrible,” citing low commodity prices, high input costs, and tariff/war-driven price swings. Tax Relief (Vietnam): Vietnam extended VAT cuts and tax payment relief to cushion inflation, including a VAT reduction to 8% and longer exemptions for agricultural land use. Jobs via Irrigation (Kenya): Kenya is consulting on a Lake Baringo irrigation project aimed at about 100,000 jobs and nearly Sh40bn in economic value. US Politics & Cost of Living: A Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Americans trust Democrats more on the economy and cost of living, with most saying Trump is handling it poorly. Blue Economy Push (Somalia): Somalia launched its first maritime conference to attract investment and shift from piracy concerns toward fisheries, ports, and wider blue-economy growth.

Bankruptcy Restructuring: Alkegen’s South Carolina manufacturing owner filed for fast-track bankruptcy to cut $3.1B in debt, lining up $315M financing while lenders take over most of the company. Global Growth Outlook: Mapfre Economics projects 3.0% world growth in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027, with inflation easing but fiscal risks still a key vulnerability. FX and Markets: Nigeria’s naira edged up on NAFEX, while investors watched crypto and bitcoin holding above $63k; South Korea’s KOSPI slid as rate-hike bets and AI-stock volatility persisted. Energy and Inflation Risks: Australia braced for a bird flu spread after a mass mortality event, with economists warning poultry and dairy shocks could lift prices. Transport Costs: Philippines officials are weighing a P20-per-liter fuel subsidy for PUV drivers, alongside hearings on fare hikes with labor and economy experts. Trade and Investment Zones: DP World is expanding in Kenya with a Mombasa SEZ/industrial park, while Malaysia is consulting on a Low Altitude Economy framework. Business Expansion: Dangote and Sinoma agreed on an $800M cement plant expansion to double output and create jobs.

U.S. Politics & Economy: A Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Democrats are seen as better stewards of the economy for the first time in nearly a decade, while Trump’s approval slips to 35%, raising midterm stakes. Manufacturing Pulse: ISM reports U.S. manufacturing expanded for a seventh straight month in July (PMI 55.6), though firms still flag pricing volatility tied to the Iran war and tariffs. Household Strain: More Americans are entering debt consolidation, with household debt at a record $18.8T and savings rates near multi-year lows—signs pressure is still building under consumers. Tech & Regulation: Amazon’s drone deliveries in Michigan are expanding, but residents are pushing back on noise and privacy, while regulators debate who should control the skies. Nigeria Energy & Finance: Lagos inaugurates Nigeria’s first integrated energy hub in Oshodi, bundling fuels and CNG/EV services; meanwhile, Nigeria’s revenue service says regulators are aligning on a unified crypto framework. West Africa Competition: ECOWAS warns price-fixing and anti-competitive practices are raising costs and weakening regional integration. Tourism Boosts: Central Florida tourism generated $98.6B in 2025, and Los Angeles welcomed 49.5M visitors, supporting jobs and local sales.

AI-driven growth: Taiwan’s economy surged 12.9% y/y in Q2, led by a 21.6% export jump tied to AI and semiconductor demand. FX pressure: Sri Lanka’s rupee slid 7.9% vs the dollar in H1, with the central bank shifting between buying and selling to manage volatility and reserves. Coastal rights under strain: Tanzania’s blue-economy push is squeezing small-scale fishers’ access to traditional grounds, raising livelihood and rights concerns. Retail jobs hit: Betfred plans to close 132 stores and cut 600 jobs, blaming economic uncertainty and higher gambling taxes. Housing slowdown debate: Australia’s housing prices cooled, with Labor pointing to rate and fuel effects rather than policy alone. Inflation watch (Turkey): Istanbul inflation eased, while Turkey’s national annual rate fell to 31.75% in July. Policy uncertainty risk: A Fed-communication critique warns opaque guidance could raise market volatility. Regional investment: Saudi non-oil growth and major projects keep real estate momentum, per CBRE. Trade outlook: World Bank kept the Philippines 2026 growth forecast at 3.7% but flagged slower recovery ahead.

Taiwan AI Boom: Taiwan’s economy grew 12.9% in Q2, beating forecasts, as exports surged 21.6% on sustained AI-related demand—supporting expectations of strong investment in semiconductors. Philippines Growth & Prices: A poll of economists points to slower Q2 GDP growth around 2.8% as inflation, weak confidence, and sluggish public spending weigh on activity, while July inflation forecasts for headline prices range 6.2%–6.8% amid El Niño, geopolitics, and a weaker peso. Central Banks Watch: Bangladesh Bank cut its repo rate 50 bps to 9.50% to spur private credit and recovery; New Zealand’s RBNZ outlook leans toward a soft labor market, while India’s RBI faces rising inflation pressures and is expected to hold rates amid oil, rupee, and West Asia risks. Nigeria Policy Debate: Nigeria’s Presidency pushed back on Atiku’s criticism, arguing reforms are judged over time and citing macro gains, while CPPE warned Nigeria’s development finance gap exceeds N50 trillion, limiting long-term funding for productive sectors. Circular Economy Push: Bangladesh is moving toward circular economy rules for plastics, aiming to meet EU requirements and unlock export potential through a plastic-to-textile model. Trade Tensions: China is drawing “red lines” on its development model and semiconductor access ahead of EU/US talks, defending an advanced-industry focus over consumption.

AI & Markets: A week of AI-linked volatility rattled investors as China’s chip moves and new lithography claims hit sentiment, while rebounds came after strong Amazon and Microsoft results; economist Steve Hanke warned AI’s real costs (power, water, chips) will limit how fast the “AI revolution” spreads. Energy & Trade: Argentina and South Korea are deepening critical-minerals cooperation, while India and Rwanda launched a joint trade mechanism to push minerals, healthcare and the digital economy. Industrial Policy & Jobs: Bangladesh is launching a China-backed economic and industrial zone near Chattogram Port, targeting $1.3b investment and 100,000+ jobs, but leaders stress utilities and services must keep up. Climate Risk: Hungary faces massive drought-driven agricultural losses, with wheat yields and soil moisture under pressure. Policy Uncertainty: Nepal’s central bank study links economic policy uncertainty to weaker markets, imports and GDP. Local Growth & Infrastructure: Zambia’s president urged firms to pass recovery gains to consumers; Odisha cleared bills for economic region development authorities; and the UK’s East West Rail project is pitched as a tourism and business boost.

Egypt Outlook: The Arab Monetary Fund forecasts Egypt’s economy will grow 4.5% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027, citing resilient demand, stronger investment inflows, and improving macro stability. Egypt Fiscal/Industry: CAPMAS says Egypt’s state economic authorities’ operating revenues jumped 46.6% to EGP 2.56tn in FY2024/25, led by mining and quarrying. Malaysia Demographics: Malaysia’s Economy Ministry is designing a pilot project to tackle ageing pressures, with a “care economy” and fiscal assessments planned for rollout next year. Maldives Residency Plan: Former President Nasheed backs the Maldives’ residency-by-investment program as a tourism-style growth lever, despite political opposition warning about sovereignty. Taiwan Growth: Taiwan’s Q2 2026 GDP is estimated up 12.92% y/y, powered by exports, private investment, and stronger consumer spending. Nigeria Markets: Nigeria’s equities rallied in July, with investors gaining about N11.1tn and the NGX All-Share Index rising 6.92%. Crypto/Energy: Malaysia is cracking down on illegal bitcoin mining that’s been siphoning electricity and linked to broader criminal proceeds. Policy Uncertainty (Nepal): A new study links economic policy uncertainty to weaker stocks, imports, credit, and GDP. Interest Rates (US): Trump’s push for rate cuts is colliding with higher borrowing costs as inflation stays “hot,” squeezing housing and government finances.

Malaysia Growth Outlook: Malaysia logged 5.6% growth in 1H 2026 and expects 2H to stay strong, with Bank Negara projecting 4.0%–5.0% for 2026 as services and manufacturing lead and oil-supply stability remains key. Sri Lanka Brand Resilience: Sri Lanka’s economy topped $100bn GDP in 2025, while brand rankings show a shift toward tech and digital firms, not just banks, as the country tries to sustain post-crisis momentum. Nigeria FX Pressure: The naira weakened across FX markets as reserves fell, with renewed US–Iran tensions lifting oil and strengthening the dollar. Taiwan AI Demand Boom: Taiwan’s Q2 GDP growth accelerated to 12.9% and exports rose 21.6% year-on-year, driven by AI-related semiconductor demand. Energy Risk Premium: Oil prices edged up after Iran said it stopped tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, keeping shipping and supply-chain worries in focus. Pakistan Stabilisation Bid: Pakistan asked the US for a $10bn exchange-stabilisation support facility to bolster reserves and ease rupee pressure. Housing Politics: Australia’s housing crisis debate turns sharper as an economist argues NIMBY opposition is the core supply bottleneck. AI Meets Insurance: A McKinsey report says insurers that adopt AI faster could gain structural advantage in underwriting, distribution, and risk management. Eurozone Data: The euro area grew 0.4% in Q2, but analysts warn the rebound may be uneven and distorted by Ireland’s multinational-driven volatility.

US Economy Watch: The U.S. grew at a sluggish 1.5% annual pace in Q2 as a widening trade deficit—boosted by AI-related imports—trimmed GDP, even as consumer spending accelerated to 3.2% and core inflation eased to 3.7% on the Fed’s preferred PCE measure. IMF & Regional Risk: The IMF said Egypt’s economy is still recovering despite Middle East instability, with growth around 5% in the latest quarter and new funding of about $1.8bn approved to support reforms. Sanctions & Geopolitics: Dmitry Medvedev argued Western sanctions haven’t crippled Russia and are instead fueling growth. Trade & Shipping: Pakistan was removed from Lloyd’s war-risk insurance list, a move expected to cut shipping and insurance costs and support trade. Digital Finance: Maldives linked its Favara instant payments system to India’s UPI to speed cross-border transactions and back a future free trade push. Climate Risk to Business: European wildfires are spreading economic losses beyond insured property damage, with crop, evacuation, and supply-chain disruption flagged as key cost drivers. Local Growth Signals: Canada’s GDP rose 0.3% in May, and India’s IIP jumped 7.3% in June on manufacturing strength. Nigeria Economy Debate: Nigeria’s reserves surge and record FX headlines are being weighed against whether bigger allocations are improving everyday outcomes.