AGP Executive Report

Food Inflation Watch: A U.S. economist links sticker-shock on produce to extreme weather, labor shortages, higher energy/shipping costs, and trade-policy fallout—so lettuce (+32%) and tomatoes (+20%) won’t cool fast. China Stimulus Signals: China’s leaders are weighing more stimulus, with a push to speed bond issuance to fund infrastructure as domestic demand stays weak. Middle East Trade & Security: Iran’s embassy in India calls U.S. strikes on Chabahar Port a “war crime,” escalating scrutiny of attacks on civilian economic infrastructure. Labor Supply in Thailand: Thailand extends migrant workers’ grace period through Dec. 2027 to ease shortages in manufacturing, services, construction, and agriculture. Mining & Jobs in the U.S.: Minnesota’s Mesabi Metallics mine nears opening, positioning it as a major Iron Range development and employment driver. Digital Economy & Regulation: Nigeria moves to unify virtual-asset rules via a new regulatory framework and council to curb fraud and support digital growth. AI & Cybercrime: Analysts warn AI is changing the economics of cybercrime—attacks get cheaper and scale faster, raising business risk. Global Sports Economics: FIFA World Cup spending is boosting host-city local economies, while also raising broader political and diplomatic stakes.

Digital Economy & Regulation (Nigeria): Nigeria unveiled Phase 2 of its Legal Basis Project for data processing rights, with regulators and industry groups pushing a stronger compliance framework under the 2023 Data Protection Act. FX & Inflation (Nigeria): The naira strengthened to about N1,380/$ in NAFEX as reserves climbed above roughly $52bn, while analysts warn food-price pressure could keep inflation risks elevated. Digital Economy (Nigeria): The government also rolled out a unified virtual-asset regulatory framework and a virtual asset council to harmonize rules and curb fraud. Healthcare/Finance (Jordan): Jordan’s Social Security Investment Fund grew about JD1bn in H1 to roughly JD19.7bn, driven by investment income and record cash dividends. Trade & Logistics (Jordan): Aqaba Container Terminal handled 472,680 TEUs in H1 and saw transshipment jump 177%, supported by recent quay and crane upgrades. Industrial Policy (Nigeria): The Nigeria Genomic City Project was launched to build a genomics and biotech hub, with a proposed research fund targeting about $500m annually. Global Growth Signals (New Zealand): New Zealand’s recovery could reach 2.7% growth mid-2027 if fuel costs stay lower, though geopolitics remains a risk. Labor Market (US): US job growth continued for four months, but June’s payroll gain was the weakest in the run and long-term unemployment is nearing five-year highs. AI & Space (India): Skyroot’s Vikram-1 became India’s first privately developed orbital rocket to reach a 450km orbit, aiming to validate systems for future commercial launches. Geopolitics & Economy (China/Indonesia/Cambodia): China and Indonesia coordinated on AI cooperation, while Xi reaffirmed support for Cambodia’s socio-economic plan via industrial and technology corridors. Opposition Pressure (Nigeria): Nigeria’s ADC renewed attacks on Tinubu’s economic policies, citing World Bank poverty and WFP hunger figures.

China–Cambodia Ties: Xi Jinping reaffirmed China’s support for Cambodia’s socio-economic development, pushing the “Diamond Cooperation Framework” and industrial corridors. Africa’s Economic Role: AfDB’s chief economist says multipolarity gives Africa more seats at the table for trade and governance. South Africa Labor Crunch: Anti-migrant protests are driving tens of thousands of workers out, with delivery and domestic-work platforms reporting staffing gaps that could hit near-term growth. Sovereign Credit Watch: Fitch kept Türkiye’s “BB-” rating with a stable outlook, flagging persistent inflation and external financing risks while expecting growth to slow then recover. Energy Costs: Diesel topped $5 as Iran–US tensions and Hormuz disruption fears raise shipping and broader price pressures. UK Local Impact: Coventry’s international students are estimated to add £1.156bn to the city’s economy, though immigration policy could cool demand. Digital Finance: Nigeria’s Tinubu signed an executive order creating a virtual-asset council to coordinate regulation and curb fraud. AI & Jobs: Indonesia’s economic minister touts AI as a “game-changer,” aiming to lift the digital economy sharply by 2030. Housing Market Shift: Blenheim’s housing outlook swings from a shortfall to a potential surplus as weak demand and lower population growth reshape planning.

IMF Watch (UAE): IMF staff wrapped up a July 7-16 visit to the UAE, praising the country’s resilience amid regional geopolitics and highlighting work on monetary and financial stability ahead of the 2026 Article IV mission. Digital Economy (Nigeria): President Tinubu signed an executive order creating a Virtual Asset Council chaired by the CBN to harmonize crypto and stablecoin regulation, with a supervised sandbox aimed at curbing fraud while supporting innovation. Policy-to-People (Nigeria): Nigeria’s finance and budget leadership says reforms must show up in daily life, pointing to social investment and human-capital programs for resilience and economic stimulus. Trade & Investment (Bulgaria-Japan): Bulgaria’s deputy PM says Japan ties will deepen, including innovation and tech transfer, after a Japanese project expanded with an extra EUR 6m. Food & Growth (Venezuela): Venezuela’s president says 2027 could bring “great momentum” as hydrocarbon investment agreements move from memorandums to binding deals; food consumption is up nearly 10%. Markets & Agriculture: An economist warns feeder cattle margins may tighten into 2027 as input costs rise. Regional Development (South Africa): SEZs in South Africa generated R14.8bn and 30,000+ jobs, with the next phase focused on manufacturing and new jobs. Local Economy (US): California’s Q1 2026 growth came in at +3.7% annualized real GDP, helped by big AI/data-center spending. Energy/Geopolitics: Analysts link Hormuz disruption risks to broader US-China economic tensions and shipping costs.

Malaysia GDP Watch: Malaysia’s economy grew 5.8% y/y in Q2 2026, up from 5.4% in Q1, with services leading and agriculture contracting; inflation stayed contained and Bank Negara kept rates at 2.75%. Regional Growth Strategy: RHB Investment Bank points to five “regional growth centres” (Selangor, Penang, Johor, Sarawak, Kuala Lumpur) as the backbone of high-value output and exports, arguing for more talent, R&D, digital infrastructure, and industry-academia links. Nepal Export Push: Nepal is betting on churpi (yak cheese dog chew) to scale exports, rolling out a 5-year national action plan after export volumes and values surged. Nepal Property & Spending Strain: Real estate remains sluggish and policy instability plus low capital expenditure left FY2082/83 growth at 3.85% vs a 6% target. Electricity Bottleneck: Nepal’s industry faces unreliable power due to transmission and distribution lag, forcing higher generator costs. Iraq Ranking: Iraq placed 88th in a global economic development ranking, ahead of Algeria and Jordan. AI Economics: McKinsey says the next GenAI phase is about agent economics—scaling decisions now hinge on ROI and the cost of verifying and refining responses. US Consumer Signal: US retail sales rose just 0.2% in June as tax-refund tailwinds faded, while inflation cooled. Trade & Geopolitics: Gulf economies face sharper downturns amid Hormuz disruptions; Pakistan PM warns West Asia escalation could hit its economy. Digital Economy Funding: Nigeria’s NEPC disbursed ₦979.8m to 128 women-owned export MSMEs via a digital economy grant program. Aviation Link: Air Niugini resumes Auckland–Port Moresby service after 26 years, aiming to boost business and tourism ties. SEZ Leadership: PNG appoints a new CEO for its Special Economic Zones Authority, with more zones in the pipeline. Rare Earth Supply Risk: A rare-earth “killer chokepoint” narrative highlights how China’s control of processing and niche metals could reshape semiconductor supply chains.

Markets & Tech: Wall Street slid as chip weakness dragged the Nasdaq and S&P 500, even with generally upbeat data and strong early earnings—showing how much semiconductors now steer broader moves. AI & Industry: Nvidia’s CEO said AI and robotics could help Japan tackle labor shortages, while China’s H1 growth stayed resilient on new engines including AI and booming chip output. Trade & Shipping Risks: Lebanon and Syria plan to reset trade ties after Assad’s ouster, while Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb disruption fears threaten global shipping and energy costs. Energy Security: Malaysia is weighing a national petroleum reserve but urged a phased, fiscally prudent approach; Pakistan’s PM ordered full preparedness as regional tensions could hit the economy. Local Growth & Jobs: Arkansas set a tourism record with 54.3M visitors in 2025; Illinois Valley Community College reported major local economic impact; Kentucky counties earned top rankings for investment and job creation. Policy & Cost of Living: UK data showed growth of just 0.1% in May, and debate is heating up over tax rises and what they mean for momentum. Fraud & Consumer Risk: Australia warned of rising “pump and dump” scams targeting retirees using fake economist/celebrity endorsements. Business & Investment: India-Finland MoUs aim to deepen trade and investment, and Nigeria’s finance chief pushed a tech/digital push toward a $1T economy by 2030.

China Growth Watch: China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the first half, with high-tech manufacturing and AI-linked industries driving momentum even as Q2 growth cooled to 4.3% amid weak demand, a property slump, and renewed COVID pressure. UK Economy: The UK eked out 0.1% GDP growth in May, powered by services while manufacturing and construction shrank; the Iran conflict is still weighing on costs and supply chains. Geopolitics & Energy Costs: Malaysia warned businesses not to underestimate renewed Strait of Hormuz disruption, flagging risks to oil prices, shipping costs, raw materials, and food prices. Industrial Policy Moves: Latvia’s National Alliance proposed merging multiple ministries into a single Ministry of the Economy to speed decisions; India’s Cabinet approved Semicon 2.0 and a urea push under a broader Rs 2.19 lakh crore package. Nigeria Reform Narrative: President Tinubu backed “foundational progress” from fiscal and revenue reforms as Deloitte Africa pledged support; NECA urged continued reforms plus faster power improvements to cut business costs. Local Economy Pressure: A study on Ancient Corinth found tourism traffic isn’t translating into local spending due to short stays and weak visitor services. Housing Strain: In Jamestown, rising rents and unstable “shadow housing” arrangements highlight how affordability problems are reshaping local economic life. AI & Jobs: Multiple reports warn AI could disrupt work faster than past industrial shifts, raising the stakes for workforce planning.

AI & Banking: Bank of America says AI is improving productivity and client service, citing 400,000 prompts a day and “good economics” behind more than 300 AI use cases as net income rose 10% to $3.3B. US Economy Pulse: The Fed’s Beige Book finds activity up moderately in 11 of 12 districts, with inflation pressure easing in places but fuel-cost uncertainty still weighing on sentiment. Fed Policy Outlook: Beige Book notes price growth is same or slower across districts, while some expect inflation to slow as fuel prices fall. Global Energy Shock: Renewed US-Iran strikes are reviving fears for oil and shipping via the Strait of Hormuz, with import-dependent economies like South Africa exposed to higher fuel costs. China Growth Slowdown: China’s Q2 GDP rose 4.3% y/y, the weakest since late 2022, as weak domestic demand and property drag collide with strong exports and industrial output. Canada Rates: Bank of Canada held at 2.25%, pointing to signs of improvement but flagging Middle East and US-trade uncertainty. AI Job Risk: Nearly 200 economists and tech leaders warn rapid AI could trigger large-scale job displacement unless policymakers build incentives and guardrails. Local Development: Alaska’s AIDEA proposes a Mat-Su industrial park with data centers, sparking trail and wildlife concerns; Ghana’s business chamber backs its 24-Hour Economy plan but warns implementation is the make-or-break.

Trade & Diplomacy: India-UK CETA took effect July 15, with nearly 99% of Indian exports getting duty-free access to the UK and tariff cuts on selected UK goods expected to deepen supply chains and jobs. Semiconductors & Tech: Dutch chip-equipment maker ASML lifted second-quarter profit and raised its full-year sales outlook, citing continued AI-driven demand for logic and memory chips. China Macro: China’s Q2 growth cooled to 4.3% as weak consumption and a property slump offset export strength, renewing calls for stimulus. Aviation & Consumer Costs: United Airlines will add a new Economy Plus option on its A321XLR that blocks the middle seat and adds a shared table, aiming to improve comfort without changing capacity. Tourism & Infrastructure: A study says poor public transport is holding back East England’s £4bn tourism economy by hurting visitor satisfaction and staffing. Regional Policy & Governance: Cambodia’s National Assembly approved new appointments and four laws to strengthen ASEAN trade and recognition frameworks. Local Economy: Iowa City’s downtown district is creating new roles focused on economic vitality and arts to keep the core vibrant. Labor & Jobs: An ILO official urged Fiji to shift from GDP-only targets to job-centered policy to tackle shortages, skills gaps, and migration. War Economy: A UN report warns Sudan’s “war economy” is sustaining conflict by exploiting commodities and trade routes, spotlighting gum arabic.

AI & Jobs: More than 200 economists and tech leaders are urging governments to act now on AI’s economic disruption, warning of job displacement and calling for workforce-ready policies. Housing Costs: New rent data shows affordability pressure is worsening, with median rents above $700 a week and vacancy at just 1.6%, reigniting calls to address the underlying home shortage. Digital Economy & Tax: Nigeria is pushing e-invoicing to cut tax leakages and boost transparency, while also expanding digital insurance claims processing across Africa. Energy & Emissions: A Canadian economist says oilsands emissions are still set to rise “fairly significantly” even with carbon storage plans moving forward. Regional Growth & Jobs: West Virginia University leads a $321M NSF-backed energy innovation hub for Appalachia, and Northwest Indiana is weighing major data-center investment that could generate billions. Local Economic Support: Western Nevada seeks public input on its regional economic plan; Coconino County applies for federal disaster loans after the Pocket Fire; and Glasgow launches a night-time economy commission aimed at safer, better after-dark transport. Trade & Policy: Nigeria’s finance ministry sets up an advisory committee to turn reforms into measurable results, while the Nigerian-British Chamber expands its UK network to deepen trade ties. Aviation Perks: United plans “Economy Plus” with an empty middle seat replaced by a shared table on new aircraft.

AI & Jobs: More than 200 economists and tech leaders urged governments to act now as AI could trigger an “unprecedented transformation” and large-scale job displacement. Markets & Rates: Bank of America’s survey found investor sentiment at its strongest since February, helped by AI-linked spending and hopes for a more dovish Fed. Energy & Inflation: India’s June inflation beat expectations (4.38% y/y) as renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions lift oil risk, while food inflation hit 17-month highs (5.32%) from tomato and ginger spikes. Trade & Growth: China’s exports jumped 27% y/y in June on AI-driven chip demand, while Kazakhstan reported 4.1% growth in H1 with non-oil leading. Cost of Living: Malaysia said rising prices are squeezing low-income households despite higher average income, and UK heatwaves are already costing billions in lost output. Circular Economy: India pushed textile waste upcycling via “Weave the Future 4.0,” and OECD data highlights low plastic recycling rates across South and Southeast Asia. Policy & Industry: Nigeria plans a comprehensive environmental/building regulation framework; Indonesia rolled out mandatory B50 biodiesel to cut diesel imports; and Uttar Pradesh approved startup and data centre policies to attract investment.

AI & Jobs Alarm: More than 200 economists and tech leaders, including Nobel laureates, warn AI could trigger an economic shift bigger than the Industrial Revolution but on a much faster timeline, urging governments to build research and policy capacity now. Inflation Watch (US): Ahead of June CPI, economists expect cooling price growth after easing gas costs, while “core” inflation may still rise—keeping pressure on the Fed. Monetary Policy (Canada): The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold rates at 2.25% as growth rebounds but inflation remains the key constraint. Cuba Sanctions: The US expanded sanctions targeting Cuba’s tourism and other state-linked entities, aiming to squeeze revenue as travel and fuel deliveries hit historic lows. UK Space Economy: King Charles opened a new Space and Defence Gateway at Harwell, pitching it as a bridge from research to investment and export growth. Malaysia Aged-Nation Plan: Malaysia outlined long-term social protection and healthcare financing reforms, plus a “silver economy” push to create jobs. Data Centers Debate: A study says a large data center campus in northwest Indiana could generate billions in output and thousands of jobs, while another report warns incentives often fail to deliver promised local benefits. Regional Growth (Africa): Ethiopia hosted the first Africa Pastoral Markets Forum, aiming to turn livestock markets into a trade and investment engine.

Monetary Policy Watch: New Zealand’s OCR hike to 2.5% is likely the start of a longer tightening cycle, with economists warning at least two more increases this year as the RBNZ tries to offset looser financial conditions. UK Growth Pressure: Britain’s economy is expected to stall again in May, with high energy costs tied to weak services and fresh recession worries after April’s contraction. Middle East Energy Shock: Markets are jittery as renewed US-Iran tensions raise oil and shipping risks; Pakistan’s stock index slid sharply on Strait of Hormuz fears. Public Finance Scrutiny: Liberia is set for a major revenue audit hearing, summoning finance and banking officials over how tax funds moved through accounts from 2018–2024. Jobs & Housing: Croatia’s unemployment fell 15% year-on-year in June, while Australia’s housing crunch remains worst in WA and Queensland, with interest rates still the key driver of prices. Industrial & Climate Tech: Japan’s METI-backed BESS-PV test in Thailand targets grid stability as solar surges. Development & Investment: Zambia will resume local vehicle assembly in Kafue under a new economic zone, aiming to turn infrastructure into jobs and growth.

Consumer Robotics: 1X Technologies launched NEO, a $20,000 (or $499/month) humanoid robot aimed at 2026 household deliveries, signaling consumer automation is moving from demos to paid demand. Wealth & Spending Divide: New data shows the richest 10% of Americans account for nearly half of consumer spending, reinforcing a “K-shaped” economy where many households cut back while asset-rich buyers keep demand afloat. Philippines Credit Access: SSS partnered with Standard Economics to roll out AI-enabled digital microloans, aiming for faster approvals and tighter fraud controls. Macro Outlook (Bangladesh): ADB cut Bangladesh’s GDP growth forecast to 3.7% for FY2026, citing weaker exports, sluggish investment, high energy costs, and still-elevated inflation. Central Banking & Inflation (US): Fed officials appear split under the surface, but most still expect no cuts in 2026 as inflation risks keep policy restrictive. Crypto/AML Crackdown (Thailand): Thailand’s Bank of Thailand and SEC will scrutinize large USDT transactions and require source-of-funds checks for big cash deposits to curb shadow-economy flows. Food Prices Risk: Analysts warn a “super” El Niño could keep global food prices pressured into 2028, adding to “climateflation” concerns. Business Environment (Sharjah): Sharjah’s SEDD reported 38,169 licenses issued/renewed in H1 2026, up 2%, with commercial and professional activity leading. Energy Transition: A new look at batteries argues the tech’s rapid mainstreaming is now a core driver of the clean-energy shift.

UK Economy Outlook: The UK’s May GDP is due after April’s flat/weak momentum, with economists warning services are still under pressure from fuel and energy costs tied to the Iran war. China Growth Pulse: China’s H1 data points to steady improvement, with consumption recovering and AI/humanoid-robot investment accelerating. Household Strain in the U.S.: U.S. credit card balances fell sharply, a defensive pullback that signals deeper financial stress for many households. Food Price Risk: Analysts warn a “super” El Niño could keep global food prices elevated into 2028, compounding war-driven inflation. Property Affordability Debate: Malta’s home prices rose 6.7% y/y in Q1, reigniting questions about whether growth is helping buyers or worsening affordability. AI & Policy: South Korea is expected to tighten policy as inflation stays above target, while AI governance and the creator economy face new detection-driven economics. Energy & Trade Security: India’s Navy is framed as an economic-security asset, and Iran is said to be alarmed by the India-Middle East-Europe corridor that could bypass Hormuz. Local Business Impact: Afghanistan’s Herat markets saw a sharp drop in female customers after dress-code crackdowns, hitting turnover. Development Finance: India’s finance ministry plans talks with public banks to boost foreign-currency deposits, aiming to revive inflows. Tourism Boost: South Florida businesses report gains from FIFA fever, with large crowds lifting sales.

Venezuela Quake Fallout: Twin earthquakes near Caracas are already estimated to have caused about $37B in direct damage, with jobs and trade disrupted as uncertainty deepens in the quake zone. Iraq–US Economic Pivot: Iraqi PM Zaidi is pushing to shift ties with Washington from security to investment, floating an energy and development fund idea aimed at scaling trade and private-sector links. OECD on New Zealand Jobs: The OECD says New Zealand’s employment is holding up, but real wage recovery is lagging and regional inequality—especially for Māori—remains a risk. Bangladesh Export Outlook: HSBC expects a mild global consumer rebound to support Bangladesh’s exporters as energy prices ease and shipment predictability improves. ADB Lifts Nepal Forecast: The ADB raised Nepal’s 2026/27 growth estimate to 3.9% on stronger hydropower output, while warning 2027 remains tougher amid Middle East-driven energy and tourism risks. Sarawak Sibu Economic Zone: Malaysia’s Sarawak will launch a Sibu Economic Zone with RM1.5B to attract investment, expand services, and create higher-value jobs, with road upgrades seen as a catalyst. Auto Safety: Kia issued a recall for nearly 463,000 Telluride SUVs after reports of fires tied to a seat motor overheating risk. AI’s “Economics” Shift: Coverage highlights AI moving from bigger models to cheaper, more practical systems—turning AI into infrastructure that changes pricing, access, and research timelines. Public Finance Scrutiny (India): Maharashtra faces scrutiny after CAG findings point to off-budget borrowing and “shadow” liabilities that complicate the state’s true fiscal picture. Tourism Risk (Eastern Caribbean): The ECCB warns global uncertainty and oil volatility could weigh on tourism demand and growth.