AGP Executive Report

Green Tech Push: Sarawak is shifting to a low-carbon, tech-led model under PCDS 2030, valuing forests as carbon sinks, using AI for public services, and aiming to build a regional green-energy hub. MSME Drive: Nigeria’s Tinubu approved free corporate registration for 250,000 MSMEs to cut bureaucracy and help grassroots firms integrate into the formal economy, while Nigeria’s MSME Awards spotlight policy support for small businesses. AI Meets Inflation: IMF’s Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warns AI-driven demand can lift prices, and a separate report links higher consumer tech costs to soaring memory chip prices tied to data-center buildouts. Trade Tensions: Trump threatens 100% tariffs on countries that introduce digital services taxes targeting US tech firms, raising new uncertainty for cross-border digital trade. Earthquake Shock: UNDP estimates Venezuela’s quakes caused about $6.7B in direct damage (~6% of GDP), with knock-on hits to productivity, jobs, and confidence. Energy & Budgets: Hawaiʻi’s governor signed a supplemental budget prioritizing affordable housing, public health, and economic growth amid federal funding uncertainty. Local Growth & Jobs: Odisha launched a Women Entrepreneurship Platform to boost women-led enterprises and competitiveness as Cambodia urges SMEs to prepare for LDC graduation and tougher global standards.

Export Push (Sri Lanka): President Anura Dissanayake wants Sri Lanka to become an export-oriented manufacturing economy, targeting a combined US$3B in coconut and food-and-beverage exports in two years, with incentives for value-added production. CFO Caution (Netherlands): Deloitte finds Dutch CFOs less optimistic amid uncertainty: 52% are more pessimistic, energy costs are squeezing margins, and risk appetite has tightened. Growth Outlook (India): EY expects India’s FY27 growth at 6.6%–6.8%, with inflation around 4.5%, helped by easing global energy pressures if oil routes normalize. Trade/Geopolitics (China): Reuters reports China’s industrial profits rose 21.1% in May but growth is uneven, with property drag and structural imbalances still weighing on demand. Local Economy & Jobs (US): Memphis mayor announces COO/CFO replacements as the city faces budget strain; Wisconsin highlights housing affordability pressures tied to regulations, tariffs, and energy costs. Inflation Watch (Haiti): Haiti’s monthly inflation jumped to 3.4% in April, driven mainly by transport and fuel-linked costs. Policy & Infrastructure (Nigeria): Tinubu defends infrastructure spending as the “backbone” of growth while inaugurating roads in Abuja’s Mabushi district. Tourism Boost (Tasmania): Dark Mofo’s winter run drew 550,000+ attendances and a record $5.18M box office, lifting the visitor economy.

Low-Altitude Economy Push (Malaysia): MIGHT showcased a “Low Altitude Economy Mini Sandbox” to test drones, unmanned traffic management and advanced air mobility, aiming to add RM50.7B to GDP and 100,000 high-value jobs by 2030. Canada Growth Watch: Economists cut Canada’s 2026 growth outlook after trade-agreement uncertainty dampened business optimism and investment plans. China Fiscal Strain Hits Bureaucracy: Beijing is downgrading local government offices amid debt and revenue pressure, signaling tighter spending and a reshaping of administration. Ukraine Digital Infrastructure: Kyivstar and VEON signed an MoU with Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy to explore a sovereign, AI-ready data center to speed AI adoption and attract investment. IMF Dollar-Centered View: IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the world remains firmly “dollar-centered” despite tariff shifts. Curaçao Fiscal Turnaround: Central bank data show debt falling and a current budget surplus in 2025, driven mainly by tourism-led revenue gains. Local Economic Development (US): Sun Prairie launched a digital economic development hub to help businesses find sites and resources quickly. Food Security Strategy (Canada): Canada unveiled a National Food Security Strategy backed by $3B over 10 years to boost productivity and competition.

India Macro: ICRA says India’s economic activity growth hit a 3-month high in May (8.7% YoY), but core output stayed tepid and unemployment rose. UK Business Policy: Andy Haldane urged a “bolder” UK reset, including redirecting pension tax relief toward UK firms and extending how long policy impacts are assessed. Trade & Deals: India and the UK pushed ahead on the India-UK CETA, while Japan plans talks on an EPA with Mercosur. Energy & Inflation: Standard Chartered flags Vietnam’s growth normalizing, with a widening trade deficit and inflation risks keeping rates steady. Defense Industrial Base: Lockheed won a major THAAD interceptor production contract as Trump accelerates weapons output and stockpiles. Local Economy & Jobs: Kolkata’s warehouse collapse killed 11, spotlighting unsafe, informal warehousing. Africa Policy: Nigeria’s reforms face calls for measurable outcomes, and Sanusi warned ECOWAS not to rush the ECO currency without convergence and credible institutions. Tech/Industry: China’s Xiong’an is marketed as an AI-and-low-altitude innovation hub, while Japan outlined huge investment plans across strategic sectors.

US Growth & Inflation Watch: The IMF said the Fed’s rate hold was appropriate as US inflation stays above target, while Commerce reported US GDP grew at a solid 2.1% pace in Q1, with AI-linked investment rising but consumer spending weakening. Global Rates & Currencies: Bank of Canada officials are expected to keep rates steady, but the loonie is pressured by a strong US dollar and an AI-driven US investment pull. Philippines Setback: S&P cut its 2026 growth forecast for the Philippines to 4.1%, blaming stalled infrastructure and Middle East-driven energy shocks. Cuba Economic Overhaul: Cuba rushed sweeping market reforms, easing price controls, expanding private activity, and opening parts of finance and foreign trade. Curaçao Policy Focus: Curaçao’s central bank warned healthcare financing is a major long-term risk and urged less red tape plus faster structural reforms to sustain growth. Zambia Macro Update: Zambia reported inflation easing to 6.5% (lowest since early 2018) alongside 7.7% Q1 GDP growth. AI & Jobs Debate: Anthropic hired Stanford economist Chad Jones to study AI’s economic future, including existential risk scenarios. Infrastructure Spending Drag (Philippines): Malacañang said cautious fund releases tied to past flood-control scandal slowed infrastructure spending, with a push to accelerate in H2. Regional Trade Push: SACU leaders reaffirmed the bloc as a development and industrialisation platform, with trade facilitation and logistics in focus.

Infrastructure & Growth: India’s PM Modi used the PRAGATI platform to review Rs 30,000 crore in road, power, industrial corridor and metro projects, stressing PM GatiShakti for faster delivery. Energy Markets: Pacific finance ministers said the Iran-U.S. deal is only a “negotiate an agreement” step, so small island states are bracing for fuel-price volatility. Sanctions & Trade: Bosnia’s “grey list” risk is expected to mean tighter controls, slower payments and higher costs—hurting exporters reliant on the EU. Markets: Nigeria’s NGX slid 2.35% as profit-taking hit bellwethers like BUA Cement and Dangote Cement, while a few insurers gained. Policy Debate: South Africa’s proposed Maternal Support Grant sparked concern it could incentivize poor women to get pregnant for the monthly payment. AI & Industry: South Korea and the U.S. discussed AI supply-chain cooperation and a deeper strategic economic partnership, including shipbuilding. Local Economy: Cyprus’ economic sentiment inched up in June, helped by retail and construction, while services weakened. Digital Push: Bhutan reported digital transformation gains, including jobs and a national digital identity system.

Bank of Canada Watch: Officials held rates at 2.25% despite a surprise Q1 contraction, stressing policy must stay “nimble” as uncertainty from Iran and trade talks lingers. Malaysia Investment Momentum: Net FDI jumped 41.2% to RM65.9bn in 2025, while Malaysian firms’ overseas expansion moderated outflows—signals economists say point to a healthier balance of payments. Malaysia Low-Altitude Push: Transport Minister Anthony Loke says Malaysia will accelerate its low-altitude economy, with global standards still forming and local guidelines expected by year-end. Bangladesh–Malaysia Partnership: Leaders reaffirmed people-to-people connectivity and digital transformation, including plans to update labor recruitment MoUs via a joint working group. Ukraine Farm/Forestry Criteria Tightened: Ukraine raised thresholds for “vital importance” status, doubling cultivated land and lifting revenue and wage requirements, tightening access to employee quotas. Curaçao Fiscal Turnaround: Tourism-led growth lifted 2025 GDP to 5.1% and improved the current budget surplus to 3.1% of GDP while easing the debt ratio to 61%. U.S. Economy Politics: A new report argues Trump’s midterm focus is not on cost-of-living legislation, instead reviving election administration changes. Botswana Reform Call: The central bank urged urgent structural reforms to diversify beyond diamonds and rebuild fiscal buffers amid weaker mineral revenues. Digital Payments in Tanzania: The government is making digital payments mandatory in key sectors from July 2026, aiming for efficiency and lower cash-related crime—while experts flag infrastructure and inclusion risks. AI at Summer Davos: WEF discussions in Dalian centered on moving AI out of labs, as most economists expect growth to weaken and productivity gains to arrive more slowly. Tech & Labor Shock: JD.com’s founder warned robot delivery could eventually replace gig couriers, while the company trains workers for new roles.

Competitiveness Watch: Qatar topped regional and global rankings in the IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook, citing strong trade balance, very low unemployment, and high savings as it pushes toward Qatar Vision 2030. China Growth & Strategy: China’s autonomous regions’ combined GDP rose from 3.25tn yuan (2012) to 8.66tn yuan (2025), while Premier Li Qiang told “Summer Davos” that innovation is the engine for long-run resilience. Digital Trade Integration: Türkiye completed its internal steps to join the OTS Digital Economy Partnership, aiming to cut barriers for e-commerce, digital services, and cross-border data activity. App Store Scrutiny: Apple’s Brazil commission and distribution rule changes are now triggering fresh complaints from Chinese developers, as regulators re-examine the global App Store model. Inflation & Rates: Australia’s headline inflation fell to 4% on lower fuel costs, but trimmed-mean inflation stayed higher, keeping rate-hike risks on the table. Local Economy & Policy: Honolulu’s mayor vetoed budget cuts to its Office of Economic Revitalization, arguing the cuts would hurt struggling communities. Census Push: Nepal’s Second National Economic Census hit 1.35M establishments covered, with e-census follow-ups running until mid-July. Energy Shock Risk: Economist Paul Barker warned El-Niño severity and drought duration could hit agriculture, fisheries, food prices, and even shipping and hydropower. World Cup Spillover: Pennsylvania’s World Cup fan festival is projected to drive about $770M in economic impact, with Philadelphia drawing record daily crowds. IMF on Aid: The IMF says Africa must lean more on domestic revenue and spending efficiency as foreign aid falls fast.

Trade & Energy Ties: Malaysia signaled it wants deeper cooperation with the UAE across petroleum, petrochemicals and logistics, citing big UAE-to-Malaysia import flows and downstream feedstock value. Economic Resilience & Risk: Bulgaria’s economy is “highly vulnerable” to external shocks, with an ECB-linked economist warning against deficit-funded pensions and stressing reputational risk. Policy vs. Reality: A Puerto Rico business community says investor trust matters most amid political turmoil, arguing continuity in reforms is key to competitiveness. Regulation Backlash: Georgia AG Chris Carr joined a 17-state fight against California’s Plastics Act, warning higher packaging costs could hit consumers. Sanctions & Growth Pressure: The U.S. imposed new sanctions on Cuban state firms tied to GAESA, analysts say this will deter investment and worsen the crisis. AI Investment Boom: California AI startup Baseten raised $1.5B at a $13B valuation, highlighting fast-growing demand for AI infrastructure. Housing & Jobs: New Zealand’s jobseekers are “risk assessing” and prioritizing stable, fair workplaces, while Labour in New Zealand pushes a bigger role for community housing providers to tackle shortages. Middle East Economic Spillover: Pakistan’s Iran-US mediation could bring economic goodwill, but analysts doubt it will fix deeper issues like inequality and IMF dependence.

Maritime Strategy: Malaysia is pushing a “future-ready” maritime economy, betting on port modernisation, automation, multimodal logistics, shipping security and Strait of Malacca resilience to capture trade as routes shift. Global Finance: Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan died at 100, with tributes and renewed debate over his legacy—from crisis navigation to critics blaming easy credit for later bubbles. Energy Transition: Türkiye cut gas-fired power generation over the past decade, while solar and wind growth reshaped electricity demand and reduced gas’s role. Green Jobs: Indonesia’s green economy is projected to create about 3.88 million jobs in 2026, driven by downstreaming, renewables, electrification and skills building. Fintech & Inclusion: Fintech tools are helping informal traders move into the formal economy via simpler payments and building a transaction-based financial identity. Policy & Politics: Brexit’s promised gains are again questioned as analysts argue the UK’s economy and politics have paid a long price. Labour & Gig Work: An Uber driver accused of harassing a teen faces continued deactivation while the Fair Work Commission orders weekly pay pending a decision. Business Climate: Abu Dhabi reported a 21% jump in new economic licences in Q1 2026, signaling continued investment appetite.

Food Security & Affordability (Canada): Canada launched its National Food Security Strategy, backed by $3B over 10 years, aiming to boost productivity, support independent grocers, and increase competition to help lower prices. Broadband & Rural Access (Canada): The Canada Infrastructure Bank and partners will invest $165M to expand broadband service in Manitoba, targeting about 7,800 households in underserved rural areas. Energy Policy (Canada): Canada also unveiled a Nuclear Energy Strategy, as it pushes to protect affordability while scaling clean power. Housing & Cost Pressure (U.S.): A new report says housing affordability is unlikely to return to pre-2022 levels, with higher mortgage-rate sensitivity keeping pressure on buyers. Geopolitics & Inflation Risk (U.S.-Iran): The U.S. paused Iran oil sanctions after Iran agreed to allow UN nuclear inspectors back, a move that could ease energy-price pressure but leaves broader uncertainty. Central Banking & Markets (U.S.): Coverage of Alan Greenspan’s death revisits his “Greenspan put” legacy—how Fed liquidity responses shaped market expectations. Local Economy (U.S.): Des Moines’ Art Festival is expected to generate millions through hotel stays, vendors, and art purchases. Policy & Jobs (U.S.-Tech): New Mexico and Albuquerque are funding BlackVe’s expansion with 152 high-paying jobs projected over 10 years.

Geopolitical Trade Risk: The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint for global shipping and energy flows, with disruptions rippling into prices and production far beyond the Middle East. Parliament & Policy: Malaysia’s parliament is set to probe Strait of Hormuz trade disruption impacts, inflation risks, and haj management upgrades, while also weighing an AI governance bill on misuse and deepfakes. Corporate & Investment: India’s asset-backed securities market hit a record as foreign banks stepped up purchases, while waste-tech startup Recykal raised $23M to scale circular-economy deposit return systems. Shipping Decarbonization: Fortescue and CMB.TECH signed a milestone deal for up to 12 ammonia-capable vessels, targeting major emissions cuts if green ammonia is used. Local Growth & Infrastructure: Nepal’s Nagdhunga–Muglin road expansion faces further delays, and Raskot Municipality unveiled a Rs 56.67 crore budget for current and capital spending. Macroeconomic Outlook: Standard Bank Research expects Ghana growth of 5.9–6.1% in 2026, supported by infrastructure and gold mining expansion. Tech, Jobs & Skills: Thailand plans to lift growth potential to 3% by 2030, and the UK’s Workforce North initiative aims to connect people to jobs from major regional investment. Business Sentiment: A Lloyds survey finds Yorkshire firms are still planning to grow despite global uncertainty, with cost and supply-chain pressures driving strategy changes.

Central Banking Watch (Philippines): BSP is expected to stay hawkish, with lenders projecting two more rate hikes to lift the policy rate to 5.25% by end-2026, aiming to anchor the peso as supply-side inflation lingers. Monetary Policy (India): RBI is widely expected to hold the repo rate at 5.25% in the next decision, with analysts pointing to easing US-Iran tensions but still watching monsoon, food inflation, and crude prices. Bullion & Commodities: Gold and silver are seen staying pressured as markets track US-Iran talks and crude moves, with the Strait of Hormuz still a key swing factor. Energy & Fiscal Risk (Nigeria): The IMF warns Nigeria’s below-cost electricity tariffs are creating implicit subsidies and ballooning arrears, draining public finances and raising contingent liabilities. Trade & Industry (Guinea): Guinea suspends raw gold exports to force processing at home, aiming to keep more value inside the country. Tourism as Growth (Jamaica/Nepal/Indonesia): Jamaica pushes “Tourism 3.0” for higher local retention; Nepal’s Gandaki targets doubling foreign arrivals with Rs 2bn for tourism; Indonesia spotlights sports tourism via the Jogja Marathon to drive regional spending. Digital Economy (Nigeria): Nigeria’s creator economy is surging, with 250,000+ active creators reshaping marketing budgets toward performance-led influencer partnerships. Business Incentives (Sharjah): Sharjah rolls out 3-month fee reductions and licence waivers to ease costs for micro and small businesses. Africa’s Economic Concentration: IMF data highlights Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Algeria and Ethiopia together driving about half of Africa’s GDP.

Geopolitics & Energy: Iran says it closed the Strait of Hormuz after Lebanon attacks, while Trump threatens US tolls if no final deal is reached in 60 days—raising fresh risk for oil, shipping, and global prices. US-Iran Deal Backlash: Trump defended the interim ceasefire as markets react to falling oil costs, but critics argue the US is losing leverage. India Policy Watch: India’s finance standing committee will study “evolving economic conditions” amid West Asia shocks, tariffs, and commodity volatility; RBI projects growth cooling to 6.6%. Climate & Food Risks: India’s monsoon start is weak (38% rainfall deficit), hitting kharif sowing and lifting food-price concerns. Regional Growth Gaps: Nepal Rastra Bank data shows Bagmati drives 36.71% of GDP while Karnali contributes just 4.2%, highlighting uneven development. Circular Economy Regulation: SMART will join Basel Convention talks on used textiles, where proposals could restrict reuse markets. Blue Economy Push: Kenya’s coastal counties unveiled a $1.2B blue economy plan to 2030, targeting fisheries, ports, transport, tourism, and green energy.

US-Iran Diplomacy & Oil Markets: Trump said he signed an interim Iran peace deal to avoid “economic catastrophe,” a remark that weakens US leverage as talks head to Switzerland and Hormuz disruptions still threaten global supply chains. Central Banking & Inflation Risks: Russia cut its key rate to 14.25% but warned rates may stay elevated due to pro-inflationary fiscal spending and fuel-price pressures tied to Ukraine-linked disruptions. Ghana 24-Hour Economy: Critics and MPs are trading barbs over the 24-hour economy rollout, including whether promised cocoa irrigation boreholes are delivering and whether market funding should be diverted to stalled hospital projects. Rural Women & Growth: A WVU study finds rural self-employed women are linked to wage-and-salary job growth, pointing to childcare and access to finance as key barriers. Local Jobs & Defense Manufacturing (US): A $47M federal award will keep Mack Defense producing heavy dump trucks in Allentown for the US military. Blue Economy & Trade: UAE officials at the Marrakech forum pushed blue-economy jobs and warned protectionism and debt are eroding free trade. India Macro Watch: NSE flags monsoon risk and El Niño as major 2026 threats, even as investor participation expands. Cuba Reform Push: Díaz-Canel presented a 23-axis, 176-measure reform plan to boost production and attract investment under US sanctions pressure.

Geopolitics & Trade: Malaysia’s PM Anwar Ibrahim says its “engage all” neutrality is boosting confidence and deals, citing Petronas agreements in Turkmenistan as proof. Pakistan–Saudi Economic Package: PM Shehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman agreed to finalize a comprehensive economic package, tying it to US–Iran diplomacy and regional stability. Policy Pressure on Living Costs: Pakistan lawmakers praised diplomacy but urged translating it into economic stability, noting debt servicing and arguing budget salary hikes may be too small amid inflation. Tourism & Aviation Access: Tasmania’s Aviation Attraction Fund targets new and expanded routes, aiming to lift visitor numbers and inject about $187m into the state economy. Transport as Growth Engine: Zimbabwe’s transport ministry says infrastructure is central to trade, investment, tourism and industrialisation as it reviews plans for 2026–2030. Digital Economy Signals: Cyprus’ digital-hub push via the DCO comes as its central bank trimmed 2026–27 growth forecasts amid Middle East risks. Oil & Inflation Outlook: ICICI Research says falling oil prices give India’s MPC room to time policy normalization, while food and fuel still drive inflation swings. Cuba Reform Push: Cuba’s parliament approved sweeping market reforms, including private enterprise and potential private banking, as the crisis deepens. Nigeria Jobs & Cleaner Energy: NDDC says it trained 500 youths for CNG/autogas conversion, framing gas as an economic opportunity for the Niger Delta. Eurasia Logistics: China-Europe Railway Express trade is expanding with Kazakhstan wheat reaching Chinese consumers, highlighting corridor-driven development. Local Economic Mobility: A Juneteenth spotlight in Tallahassee points to an “opportunity gap” alongside the wealth gap, using federal contracting data.