AGP Executive Report

Housing & Livability: A 2025 quality-of-life survey in Baguio City found residents satisfied with the economy, education and safety, but flagged housing affordability, environmental degradation and climate awareness as key gaps. Climate Shocks to Food & Transport: Heavy rain and flooding in northern Vietnam have submerged thousands of homes, blocked major routes, and damaged about 10,014 hectares of crops, with livestock losses reported—another reminder of how fast weather turns into economic disruption. Macro Outlook: Finland’s economy is forecast to grow 1.7% in 2026, led by exports and investment, even as unemployment and public debt remain pressure points. Blue Economy Innovation: Malaysia’s push for ocean thermal energy conversion, green maritime tech and wind-powered hydrogen is gaining momentum through Malaysia-Japan collaboration. Trade & Tariffs: OFAC launched “Operation Economic Outcast,” targeting Iranian-linked digital asset infrastructure, while Canada’s trade fight with the U.S. is escalating into import bans on agri-food. Elections & Cost of Living: In Quebec, candidates from five parties will debate economic plans focused on tariffs, energy, cost of living and public finances. Housing Costs: Higher mortgage rates are expected to keep downward pressure on housing prices as bond yields stay elevated. Local Economic Engines: Klamath Community College’s $80.8M economic impact underscores how workforce and education spending can translate into jobs and local growth.

Central Banks & Rates: The Fed raised rates again, with officials pointing to a stronger U.S. economy and higher long-term yields, while investors weigh what it means for borrowing and inflation. Monetary Policy Watch: Japan’s central bank is widely expected to lift rates toward a three-decade high, as inflation and wages stay sticky. Oil & Energy Economics: Europe’s low gas storage levels and high diesel prices are adding political pressure, while Syria faces fuel-price protests as costs jump. Trade & Sanctions: India vowed to protect its trade and energy interests after the U.S. passed a Russia sanctions bill that could bring up to 100% tariffs on Russian oil and gas buyers. Demographics & Labor: Births are plunging across major economies, raising long-run growth and workforce concerns. Care & Women’s Work: Nigeria pushed a national care policy to cut unpaid care burdens and expand women’s economic participation. Tech & Markets: An AI slowdown debate is back in focus, and a new study argues finance could get faster without complex tokenisation. Regional Growth: New Zealand eked out 0.2% growth in the June quarter, while Turks and Caicos projects 2.5% growth for 2026.

Fed & Inflation Politics: The Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4% for the first time in over three years, while President Trump blasted the central bank and demanded rates be “1% or less,” as analysts warned the economy may handle higher borrowing costs better than consumers. US Consumer Signals: Retail sales jumped 1.2% in August, reinforcing resilience even as inflation pressure lingers and credit stress rises. Housing Pressure: New Zealand GDP edged up 0.2% in the June quarter, but fuel-driven costs weighed on spending; in the US, home prices remain out of reach as supply shortages and higher mortgage rates bite. Geopolitics & Trade: The US House passed a sanctions-and-tariff bill targeting Russia, and tariff disputes are reshaping state-level economic planning. Global Economy Watch: China’s August slowdown deepened as consumption and property weakened despite AI-led manufacturing and exports. World Bank Leadership: Michael Kremer was named the World Bank’s next chief economist. Nigeria Development Push: Digital identity expansion and state-level reforms are aimed at boosting grassroots purchasing power, while NASENI is pushing tech to reduce hardship. Local Growth & Jobs: Portland minor league teams generated $110M+ in annual economic impact; Boston’s mayor tied growth to housing and tourism spending.

Hong Kong Tech Push: Hong Kong unveiled its first five-year plan to boost innovation spending, aiming to lift R&D intensity to 3% of GDP after 2030 and align the city’s growth with mainland priorities. AI Market Risk: Investors are bracing for a possible AI-driven correction, warning that heavy AI-linked spending across chips, data centers, and even commodities could spill into broader economies. UK Budget Pressure: UK economists say Andy Burnham’s first budget may force about £10bn in tax rises or spending cuts as the Iran shock hits public finances. Nigeria Finance & FX: Fitch flagged risks in Nigeria’s proposed $5bn total return swap, while the naira inched weaker at official and interbank markets amid rising reserves. Nigeria Security Economy: New reporting describes kidnapping as a large, organized “ransom economy,” with families paying billions and armed groups funded through logistics. Middle Corridor Value: Turkic states officials argued the Middle Corridor should be judged by added economic value, pushing digital customs and logistics integration. Local Growth Wins: Coventry’s visitor economy topped £1bn impact, and Oklahoma’s August outlook pointed to continued energy and manufacturing strength.

Crypto Policy Shock: The US Senate failed to advance the Trump-backed Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, voting 50-49 and effectively putting a federal crypto framework on ice. Energy & Inflation Pressure: With oil prices surging on Middle East risks, fuel costs are feeding affordability stress and raising market anxiety ahead of Fed decisions. Materials Economy Shift: Recycled plastic is moving from “sustainability” to a core cost strategy as virgin plastic prices converge and plastic taxes loom. US Economic Politics: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent faced sharp questioning at a House hearing over inflation, borrowing costs and Iran-linked energy pressures. Regional Growth & Jobs: Missouri Governor Kehoe leads an Italy trade mission to attract investment; Rwanda reported 9.4% Q2 growth led by industry and services. Trade Rules at Risk: The WTO warns geo-fragmentation could cut world GDP by up to 5.1% by 2050 if multilateral rules weaken. Local Development: Ghana’s GRA targets more than double revenue by 2028, while GIIF’s Accra–Kumasi expressway SPV model aims to unlock infrastructure financing. Business Updates: Briscoe Group posted record first-half sales; Emirates unveiled a more private premium-economy cabin upgrade. Housing & Mobility: Atlanta Housing expanded down-payment help to support homeownership and generational wealth.

Care Economy Push (Malaysia): Malaysia’s women’s employment gap is being blamed on caregiving burdens, with 42.8% of women outside the labour force citing domestic responsibilities; the minister says the issue is a structural policy and support gap, not a skills problem. Tourism as Export Engine (India): India’s tour operators want tourism treated as a “strategic export sector,” arguing sustained global marketing and better connectivity could lift tourism’s economy share from ~5% to 10%. Food Procurement Funding (Sri Lanka): Sri Lanka approved an extra Rs2.5bn for paddy procurement for the 2026 Yala season after purchases surged beyond targets, with officials saying payment capacity is now in place. Water Innovation Deal (UAE/WEF): The Mohamed bin Zayed Water Initiative and the World Economic Forum will partner to speed adoption of water solutions by linking innovation to policy, financing and market demand. Oil Supply Risk (Red Sea): A renewed attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline raises fears of rapid export-stock depletion and a potential short-term hit to global oil supply. Fed Watch (US): Markets are pricing a ~90% chance of a Fed hike as the 10-year Treasury yield tops 5%, with knock-on effects for countries pegged to the dollar. Dangote IPO Warning (Nigeria): The SEC warns investors to use only approved channels for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO to avoid scams. China Economy Split: August data shows stronger industrial output on AI-driven manufacturing, while retail sales and investment remain weak, deepening the growth imbalance. Trade Fragmentation Warning (WTO): A WTO report says trade bloc fragmentation could hit the poorest economies far harder than rich ones, with large GDP declines projected in worst-case scenarios. Housing Cooling (Canada): Canadian home sales fell 6.9% year-on-year in August as mortgage-rate pressure and uncertainty weigh on demand. Blue Economy Education (Bangladesh): Bangladesh plans a specialized public university in Cox’s Bazar focused on blue economy sciences, research and training to better use Bay of Bengal marine resources.

Sanctions & Finance: The U.S. Treasury under “Operation Economic Outcast” sanctioned Russia’s VTB Bank for helping Iran evade sanctions, raising secondary sanctions risk for any foreign partners. AI & Markets: HSBC says investor optimism into Q4 2026 can hold up as AI adoption spreads beyond mega-caps, while other analysts warn the AI “bubble” may be late-stage and could burst in 2027. Energy & Industry: California Waste Solutions is pushing a 50–60 MW waste-to-energy expansion in Vietnam to support net-zero goals, and JUWI started commercial operations on a 145 MW solar project in Colorado. Local Growth & Jobs: Westchester’s film and TV sector generated $1.85B in 2025 impact, while Wood County, W.Va. highlighted manufacturing prospects and site-readiness grants. Global Development: Guyana’s oil boom is driving rapid growth, but leaders stress diversification beyond petroleum. Capital Markets: Ascendis authorized up to $400M in share repurchases, and Primaris REIT launched a ~$200M bought deal equity offering.

Central Banks & Inflation: The Bank of England is set to hold rates steady but slow bond sales, as oil prices push above $100 and raise the risk of longer inflation pressure. Eurozone Policy: ECB chief Lagarde warns the latest eurozone inflation shock may last longer, keeping rates higher for longer. Energy Shock: Brent jumped to about $108 after a drone strike hit Saudi oil infrastructure, tightening supply fears and feeding global inflation worries. Fed Watch: Markets debate a September Fed hike versus a hold, with economists split and the decision set for Sept. 15–16. Oil & FX in Emerging Markets: Nigeria’s crude output rose for a fourth straight month to 1.68mbpd, while the government tells investors it’s building a more competitive environment; meanwhile petrol prices in Nigeria are again climbing above N1,400/litre. Big IPO: Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s IPO opens Sept. 14 at N525 per share, targeting retail investors and potentially raising about N2.15tn. Digital Economy & Regulation: The EU’s telecom rules overhaul via a Digital Networks Act could reshape regulation across Europe and beyond. BRICS & Trade: Xi pushes “Greater BRICS” economic ties; South Africa’s Ramaphosa highlights BRICS-driven investment and energy/logistics reforms with India. Regional Growth & Disruptions: Southern Europe shows renewed resilience despite eurozone slowdown; Nepal’s floods are projected to hit GDP hard, with major losses to transport and trade gateways. Tech & Industry: Malaysia urged data centres to deliver measurable spillovers beyond construction, while Bitdeer AI secured a 65.1MW facility in Johor for long-term AI cloud capacity.

BRICS Summit: Leaders at the 18th BRICS meeting in New Delhi agreed on new cooperation mechanisms spanning technology, security and economic development, including disease outbreak response, early-warning sharing, logistics supply-chain work, and a BRICS startup network plus an SME portal. AI & Policy Clash: US tech executives backed Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei’s call to slow the AI “frontier,” while Trump dismissed the risk talk and said the US will keep its AI lead; the White House also downplayed market turmoil from the warnings. Energy & Shipping Stress: Attacks around the Middle East are tightening oil and shipping routes, pushing oil and fuel costs higher and raising the risk of supply shocks. Trade Tensions: The US-Canada tariff fight is worsening uncertainty for cross-border supply chains, with no quick path back to normal trade. Climate Risk to Economies: New research warns Himalayan glaciers are melting faster and monitoring is lagging, raising the odds of cascading hazards that can disrupt livelihoods and growth. Regional Deals & Growth: Egypt and India discussed lifting bilateral trade to $12B, while Kazakhstan seeks deeper ties with South Korea beyond autos into AI and critical minerals. Local Business & Circularity: Revolut reported limited customer data exposure in a government-email-domain scam, and circular-economy efforts—from recycling construction waste to device component recovery—are gaining momentum.

BRICS Push for Resilient Growth: Egypt’s Sisi urged BRICS to deepen trade, supply-chain stability, tech transfer and clean energy cooperation as the 18th summit in New Delhi spotlights “Greater BRICS” plans. AI & Trade in the Spotlight: Xi backed a BRICS AI open-source push, plus service-trade and special economic zone ideas to knit emerging markets closer. Circular Economy Drive: India will host the World Circular Economy Forum 2026 in Gandhinagar (Sep 15-18), aiming to scale reuse, refurbishing and recycling as a growth model. Energy Security Moves: Türkiye plans higher mining investment and a faster EV charging rollout, while copper price spikes threaten higher costs for EVs and appliances. Trade War Spillovers: Sports groups are urging Canada and the U.S. to suspend sports tariffs as affordability and participation take a hit. Local Economy & Politics: Okinawa’s governor race turns on the U.S. base relocation and local economic revitalization; Sweden’s election centers on migration, crime and the economy. Ghana’s Economic Messaging: President Mahama says the economy has shifted from “broomsticks” to “concrete pillars,” even as progress slows.

Global Trade & BRICS: BRICS leaders used their New Delhi Business Forum to push trade expansion, industrial cooperation, digital tech and reforms to global economic governance, while the New Delhi Declaration 2026 was adopted unanimously and flagged concerns about unilateral tariffs and non-tariff barriers plus work on cross-border payments. AI & the Economy: OpenAI and Tesla’s Musk backed calls to “pace the frontier” of AI development after safety concerns, as debate grows over open versus closed AI models and what that means for productivity and risk. UK Growth: Britain’s economy beat forecasts with 0.4% July growth, helped by services and AI-linked software development, extending a strong first half. Central Banks: Austria’s central bank trimmed its 2026 growth outlook but lifted 2027 as trade and manufacturing sentiment improved; France’s central bank chief said the economy isn’t in catastrophic danger but deficits must be cut. War’s Economic Toll: Ukraine warned Russian strikes could cut GDP by about 1.5 points in 2026, with ~$10B in infrastructure damage and port blockages threatening exports. Local Development: Ghana’s 24-Hour Economy markets are under construction across districts, while Lagos and Julius Berger highlighted infrastructure and investment plans aimed at unlocking value in the city’s fast-growing economy.

BRICS Summit Watch: Leaders gathered in New Delhi for the 18th BRICS summit as wars and energy shocks keep pressure on trade and inflation, while finance chiefs pushed for more emerging-economy voice in global institutions. Global Trade & Corridors: The UAE and India expanded their partnership beyond trade into logistics corridors, aiming to double bilateral trade to $200B by 2032. ASEAN Growth Plan: Malaysia said it’s strengthening renewable energy and connectivity with Indonesia and Thailand via IMT-GT and the ASEAN Power Grid, with a new blueprint planned for 2027-2031. Middle East Economic Strain: Iran’s fuel crisis is worsening as the rial slides and port disruptions bite, leaving drivers stranded and households squeezed. Local Development & Jobs: SpaceX’s planned Texas launch site is expected to reshape nearby economies fast, with tourism and new jobs tied to the buildout. Markets vs. Economy: Taiwan’s central bank faces rising inflation pressure, while UK data showed surprise growth in July, adding to the debate over whether policy rates should rise. Fraud & AI: A new report says AI is changing the economics of financial crime, with global fraud losses hitting $442B in 2025.

UK Growth Beat: The UK economy surprised with 0.4% growth in July, driven by services and a surge in AI and cloud-related activity—giving Chancellor Andy Burnham and John Healey a boost ahead of the next budget. Rates Watch: Even with the upside, markets are now pricing multiple Bank of England hikes, with energy and bond-market stress still a risk. AI Macro Debate: Economists warn AI spending could create a “hangover” if gains flow more to capital than wages, leaving demand weak and inflation dynamics tricky. China Confidence Signal: S&P reaffirmed China’s A+ sovereign rating with a stable outlook, citing resilience and risk management—an external confidence boost for global supply chains. ASEAN Compute Race: Malaysia is positioning itself as a first-mover for hyperscale and AI infrastructure, citing connectivity, costs, and a semiconductor base. BRICS Push: South Africa and India are lining up deeper cooperation ahead of the BRICS summit, focusing on infrastructure, critical minerals, skills, and digital public infrastructure. Local Economy Ideas: Chuncheon’s “K-Chicken Belt” tourism push links local food to travel packages, while Limerick’s active-travel plan estimates big long-run economic and health returns. Crime & Integrity: Ireland launched a national strategy to combat economic crime and corruption, aiming to protect business trust and international reputation.

Monetary Policy: The ECB raised rates again by 25 bps to 2.5% on its deposit facility, while keeping a meeting-by-meeting stance as inflation risks stay tilted upward. Growth Watch: France’s 2026 growth forecast was cut to 0.4% as heatwaves, weaker labor conditions, and election-cycle public works weigh on activity. AI & Productivity: El Salvador unveiled a National AI Strategy 2026 aimed at building sovereign AI infrastructure and targeting AI to contribute about 20% of GDP by 2031. Budget & Inflation Politics: Economists warn Trump’s proposed $5,000 “dividend” for adults could widen deficits and reignite inflation, especially if funded via debt. Energy & Trade Risks: Aruba’s central bank flagged that sustained high oil prices could lift inflation sharply and slow growth in 2027. Industrial Upgrading: A CEE forum in Poland said China’s tech and investment are helping the region shift toward higher-value industries as the old low-cost model runs out of steam. Local Jobs & Investment: Chobani plans a $1.2B dairy manufacturing site in Pennsylvania, targeting 900+ jobs and a major new market for state milk. Regional Development: India approved a multi-tracking rail project for Telangana’s Secunderabad–Kazipet corridor to cut congestion and lower freight costs. Poverty & Cost Pressure: Connecticut’s ALICE report says 570,000 employed households were income-constrained in 2024, with advocates pushing for a child tax credit to ease strain.

Philippines Infrastructure Push: President Marcos urged investors at the Luzon Economic Corridor forum to turn commitments into funded, operational projects—measuring success by what gets built and jobs created. AI & Markets: Israel’s government report says the country ranks among top AI commercialization players, with a 53% jump in high-tech capital raised in H1 2026 and improved inflation and deficit targets. FX Watch (Nigeria): The naira weakened at the official window to about N1,329/$ as FX demand rose, while reserves edged up. Ghana Growth: Ghana’s economy grew 6.5% in June and 6.0% in Q2, with services and ICT driving momentum despite slower agriculture. Energy & Inflation Pressure: Brent rebounded toward $100 as US-Iran tensions and tanker attacks raise supply-risk fears. Trade & Investment (Sri Lanka): A US maritime regulator chief urged Sri Lanka to set up an independent maritime regulator to prevent cartel behavior and attract investment. Local Economy Policy (US): Homer, Alaska weighed short-term rental rules—registration vs zoning limits—to protect neighborhood character. AI Economy Debate: Anthropic warns AI could boost output while squeezing jobs and widening wage gaps, with wealth accruing more to capital owners. Bilateral Deals (UAE-Germany): UAE and Germany are deepening cooperation in renewables, hydrogen, AI, and advanced manufacturing.

Insurance & Capital Markets: Moody’s CEO Rob Fauber warned that interconnected risks are multiplying across the global economy, pushing insurers to build stronger investor confidence to attract capital. US-Iran Maritime Shock: The conflict is spilling into shipping lanes as the US targets Iranian oil tankers, raising fears of oil spills that could damage marine ecosystems and disrupt a key global trade route. China Banking Push: China injected 540 billion yuan into major state banks to shore up balance sheets and restart lending, but analysts say it may still fall short of what’s needed to restore growth momentum. Tech Manufacturing Economics: Intel and ASML reported progress on High-NA EUV, with more than a million wafers processed, testing whether manufacturing readiness can translate into better returns and broader customer adoption. Trade & Midterms: Economists say Trump’s Canada tariff moves and import bans are unlikely to dent Canada’s near-term growth, while the broader trade fight is becoming a midterm political issue. Local Economic Development: Nebraska’s economic development agency has reportedly lost more than half its workforce in 15 months, while Maui extended grant deadlines for wildfire recovery workforce and public services. Energy Costs: New Zealand’s gas shortfall could hit GDP and jobs unless government coordinates a national plan, with timelines that narrow as supply tightens. AI & Work: New research finds more Americans are holding multiple jobs, especially middle-income and college-educated workers, as economic pressure reshapes labor behavior.